There is great interest in the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt. The voter turnout was 34.7 percent by 12 p.m., as state returning officer Christa Dieckmann announced in Magdeburg. In the previous state election in 2021, 22.4 percent of voters had cast their votes by midday; in the 2016 state election it was 25.0 percent at that time. Almost 1.7 million citizens aged 18 and over are entitled to vote.
Voting began at around 2,130 polling stations at 8 a.m. sharp. “Over the course of the morning, the election business was carried out smoothly,” explained the state returning officer. “There were no disproportionate waiting times.”
The election is being watched with excitement in the country, but also far beyond, because the AfD was well ahead of Prime Minister Sven Schulze's CDU in all surveys and has declared a sole government as its goal.
In the morning, the top candidates also went to the polls in their homes. AfD top candidate Ulrich Siegmund drove with his wife to the polling station in his hometown of Tangermünde on a blue Simson. Siegmund was often out and about on his moped during the election campaign, including for rides with voters. Prime Minister Sven Schulze, who is fighting to remain in office, also voted with his wife. “Then let’s wait and see,” said the 47-year-old after casting his vote.
SPD leading candidate Armin Willingmann voted in the Harz. “May the sun continue to shine over Saxony-Anhalt for the next few years,” the politician told the German Press Agency afterwards. A sole government by the AfD would be “serious damage to the country”.
The voters decide on the composition of the new state parliament in Magdeburg. Two crosses can be placed on the ballot paper: the first vote elects the direct candidate, and the second vote elects a party. Parliament will later elect the Prime Minister again.
In all surveys, the AfD with its 35-year-old top candidate Siegmund was well ahead of Prime Minister Schulze's CDU. The party, which the Office for the Protection of the Constitution has classified as a right-wing extremist, has declared a sole government as its goal. The most recent survey results did not reflect this.
In the last survey before the election, the AfD got 41 percent. The CDU was at 23 percent in the survey published on Thursday by the elections research group on behalf of ZDF. The Left followed in third place with 11.5 percent, the SPD had 8.5 percent, and the Greens had 6 percent. The BSW with 4 percent and the FDP with 3 percent would fail at the five percent hurdle and thus miss out on entering parliament. However, polls are not a reliable predictor of the actual election outcome.
Nobody wants to go with the AfD - and the AfD only wants to go alone
If the AfD does not achieve an absolute majority, it would have to rely on alliance partners to come to government. But: None of the other parties want to form a coalition with her. Siegmund, in turn, recently confirmed that he will only stand for election as head of government if his party wins an absolute majority and can govern alone.
If the AfD misses this goal, a CDU-led minority government could come into play. However, this could rely on votes from the left - similar to Saxony and Thuringia. The problem: In a party conference resolution, the CDU rejects a coalition and “similar forms of cooperation” with the Left as well as with the AfD.
Schulze's dream scenario of a majority for the so-called center parties - such as the CDU, SPD and Greens - seems very unlikely given the polls.
The duel between Schulze and Siegmund
The CDU top candidate has only been head of government since January following the resignation of Reiner Haseloff. Schulze was therefore unable to benefit from the incumbent bonus to the same extent as a long-standing head of government. When asked who they would rather have as Prime Minister, the incumbent came in with 48 percent in the last poll by the Elections Research Group, but clearly ahead of the AfD's top candidate Siegmund (34 percent), who was celebrated like a pop star in many of his election campaign appearances.
What happens after the election?
In two weeks there will be elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin. Just as now in Saxony-Anhalt, it is also about the effects on federal politics. Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently rejected speculation that he could be forced out of office by his own party if there was a debacle for the CDU in the September elections.
The first session of the new state parliament of Saxony-Anhalt must take place no later than the 30th day after the election, which is October 6th. Then the terms of office of the ministers and the head of government also end. However, according to the constitution, they are obliged to continue running the business until their successors take over. There is no deadline by which a new head of government must be elected, but there are deadlines for possible further elections if the first and subsequent rounds fail.
