One of the most controversial and nationwide state election campaigns in recent years has come to an end. Today, 1.7 million eligible voters in Saxony-Anhalt decide on their parliament and indirectly on the next state government.
The excitement is not reflected in the pre-election polls of the last few weeks. In the representative surveys commissioned by ARD and ZDF, the parties' values only fluctuated within the usual statistical fluctuations.
After that, the AfD can expect a record result. A government majority is also possible. However, so far there has been no survey in which this was the case. In the ARD pre-election survey at the end of August, the AfD was at 42 percent.
There are signs of a serious defeat for the CDU, which has ruled since 2002. At infratest dimap it recently reached 22 percent. It is very likely that - similar to Thuringia - it will rely on votes from the left for a majority.
Saxony-Anhalt is known for surprises
However, Saxony-Anhalt is known for surprises on election day. It is the federal state with the lowest average voter turnout and particularly weak party loyalty. In 2021, in the election day survey by infratest dimap for ARD, a third of voters said they had only made their decision on Sunday or a few days before. Pre-election surveys are not predictions - the outcome of this state election is open.
The mood in Saxony-Anhalt is characterized by a critical view of the economic situation, great concern about rising prices and disappointment with the federal government. Only 13 percent of those surveyed by infratest dimap this week are optimistic about the conditions in Germany, while 82 percent are worried.
Supporters of other parties rally behind the CDU government
The previous state government made up of the CDU, SPD and FDP is rated correspondingly cautiously. 31 percent are satisfied with their work, 66 percent are dissatisfied. At the last election five years ago, the picture was largely positive.
Nevertheless, in the survey in the first half of the week, a narrow relative majority of 46 percent still want a CDU-led state government, 41 percent want a government led by the AfD. In the previous week, the camps were almost on par (41 percent CDU-led, 42 percent AfD-led).
When asked this question, the polarization in the country is clearly visible. Practically all AfD supporters want to see their party in government. The party supporters, including those from the SPD, the Greens and the Left, are almost entirely united behind a CDU government. It fits into this picture that among those who intend to vote for the SPD or the Greens, a clear majority cites wanting to prevent an AfD government as the most important reason.
The AfD could achieve its best result ever in a country. In addition to disappointment with other parties, growing confidence in the content plays a major role. With Ulrich Siegmund, the party also has its best-rated top candidate to date. 37 percent rate his work positively, younger respondents more than older ones. This puts him just behind the incumbent Sven Schulze from the CDU, with 38 percent.
If the Prime Minister could be elected directly, 46 percent chose Schulze and 40 percent chose Siegmund. Schulze had only taken over the office from Reiner Haseloff in January, had to make himself known to many voters in a short space of time and had not yet been able to build up the profile of a country father.
Pension discussions play a big role
Beyond people and tactical considerations, social security is, as in 2021, the most important substantive motive for voting decisions. 25 percent of those surveyed say this. Saxony-Anhalt is the state with the oldest population in the country. More than half of the electorate is already of retirement age or is a few years shy of it.
The discussion about the pension and other social reforms planned at the federal level plays a major role, especially for the older supporters of the CDU, SPD and the Left. Only 30 percent of those surveyed want the reforms to be implemented as planned, and even among the CDU electorate there is only a narrow majority in favor of them. The majority of those surveyed believe that the federal government deserves a lesson in this election.
Weidel and Chrupalla rated better than Merz, Klingbeil and Bas
What is striking is that the survey development in Saxony-Anhalt has been largely parallel to the nationwide values of the ARD-DeutschlandTrend for the past year and a half. The disappointment that the CDU in particular did not implement its election promises from the perspective of those surveyed and - in return - the rise of the AfD in the polls since the summer of 2025 are reflected in the country.
The two AfD federal chairmen Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla (36 and 29 percent approval of political work) are rated significantly better than the SPD co-leaders Lars Klingbeil and Bärbel Bas (16 percent each) and even more than Chancellor Merz (nine percent).
This Sunday, the voters will not only decide on the political leadership in Saxony-Anhalt. Together with Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where elections will take place in 14 days, they are also sending signals for the federal political debate in the fall.
6 p.m. forecast is based on around 20,000 interviews
Unlike the pre-election surveys, in which eligible voters are surveyed by telephone and online, today's 6 p.m. forecast on ARD is based on surveys of actual voters in 180 polling stations directly after they cast their votes. Infratest dimap expects around 20,000 interviews, from which not only the forecast but also the voter migration will be calculated.
Despite the relatively high statistical accuracy, the forecast can still differ from the later result. The projections often show that urban and rural voting districts and especially ballot box and postal voting districts are counted at different speeds. When conditions are tight, it is often not possible to be certain about the outcome of the election until later in the evening.
