The risk of Russian attacks against NATO

The risk of limited attacks against NATO

According to the report, Russia may conduct isolated attacks with long-range weapons against infrastructure considered key to supporting Ukraine. “A limited military attack would represent a desperate move by Russia and, like the intensification of hybrid attacks, could potentially occur in the coming months,” the assessment reads. The objective, according to Danish intelligence, "would be to divert European resources from supporting Ukraine" and "to create divisions within NATO in the event that the allies are unable to agree on a common response". According to the Ddis, Russia "could also deploy a limited number of troops, possibly without national insignia, in neighboring NATO countries". Such an operation, however, would require several months of preparation and would be difficult to hide.

Increases the risk of hybrid attacks

Danish intelligence also predicts an intensification of Russia's hybrid war against the West and NATO, "with potentially more serious consequences than in the past". “It is unlikely that Russia will launch a full-blown invasion of a NATO country, but this cannot be ruled out,” said Danish Defense Minister Jeppe Bruus, presenting the new assessment of the Danish military intelligence services. According to the minister, "further serious hybrid attacks" could also occur. “Already now Russia is launching attacks that we would never have imagined six months ago,” he added, as reported by Danish public service broadcaster DR. "This is the most serious situation since the end of the Cold War," he stressed.

"It's not a theory, it's something we are experiencing," denounced Thomas Ahrenkiel, head of Danish military intelligence. "In recent months Russia has intensified its hybrid attacks against us with missiles, drones and attacks in general against targets in Europe." Among the scenarios considered most imminent are hybrid attacks of limited military scope. “These could be false-flag operations, in which they use Ukrainian-made drones to attack a NATO country,” Ahrenkiel concluded.