
AI-generated summary
The withdrawal of international coalition forces from Iraq comes in implementation of the framework agreement between Baghdad and Washington signed in September 2024, which set a two-year deadline for complete withdrawal. American forces have begun to leave the Ain al-Asad base in Anbar and the Victory base near Baghdad, while these developments coincide with Kurdish fears of a security vacuum, objections of displaced people in Lebanon to their transfer from schools, and a massive removal of rubble in Gaza after the war.
The Iraqi authorities continue their final preparations to reach what they described as “Sovereignty Day,” which will witness the departure of the last soldier of the international coalition forces led by the United States of America from the country, which falls next Wednesday.
The process of withdrawal of coalition forces is consistent with the “framework agreement” reached by Baghdad and Washington at the end of September 2024. The agreement gave a period of two years to organize the withdrawal process and complete it in the same month of 2026.
Since last January, American forces have left the Ain al-Asad Air Base in Anbar Governorate, western Iraq. It is considered one of the largest and most important camps that included American and coalition forces. It was subjected to an Iranian missile attack in 2020, after the United States killed the commander of the Quds Force, Qassem Soleimani, and the deputy head of the Mobilization Forces, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, near Baghdad International Airport.
It withdrew completely from the Victory (Al-Nasr) military base near Baghdad International Airport, which was also subjected to dozens of attacks by armed factions.
The official spokesman, head of the Security Media Cell in Iraq, Lieutenant General Saad Maan, said in statements to the official Al-Sabah newspaper, Monday, that Iraq’s handover of the main headquarters of the American forces at Baghdad International Airport, and the agreement with Turkey to withdraw Turkish military forces from the Bashiqa base in Nineveh Governorate, “confirm the possibility of continuing security cooperation with international partners on the basis of mutual respect and in a manner that preserves the independence of the Iraqi decision.”
The upper floor
Maan said, “The government has now had the highest say and the sole decision in determining the nature of the military and security presence on the country’s territory.”
He added, "Strengthening Iraq's sovereignty and territorial integrity, along with its independent management of its security file, constitute the basic pillar of the country's stability and advancing its regional and international relations toward broader horizons of fruitful cooperation."
Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi announced last week that he agreed with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, during their meeting in New York, to fully extend the authority of the Iraqi state in Sinjar, and to hand over the Turkish Zlikan camp in the Bashiqa area of Nineveh Governorate to the Iraqi federal forces. The Turkish withdrawal was among the conditions set by the armed factions loyal to Iran to disarm, as were the conditions for the complete withdrawal of American forces and international coalition forces.
After completing the withdrawal of American and coalition forces from the entire Iraqi territory in the center of the country, military sources indicate that the final touches have been put in place for their final withdrawal from the areas of the northern Kurdistan region, as most of the forces left for the “Harir” military base there.
While many Kurdish political leaders express their fear of the withdrawal of American forces, the spokesman for the Commander-in-Chief of the Iraqi Armed Forces, Sabah al-Numan, confirmed that “the process of withdrawal of the international coalition forces in Erbil has already begun and will be completed by the 30th of this month.”
Al-Numan said in statements to Kurdish media, “After this date, not a single foreign soldier will remain in any part of Iraq.”
He pointed out that “the details of the coalition forces’ withdrawal will include holding an official ceremony to close the coalition headquarters, in addition to holding a sovereignty conference.”
Regarding the withdrawal of forces from the Kurdistan region, Al-Numan confirmed, “America and the international coalition are currently going through the withdrawal phase. The coalition withdraws from Erbil in coordination with the Office of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces.
Region concerns
Prime Minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government, Masrour Barzani, said on Sunday, “The withdrawal of American forces and international coalition forces from Iraq comes at a very sensitive time, and the Kurdistan region has been subjected to more than a thousand missile attacks and drone attacks.”
He added, "Leaving the Kurdistan region exposed without providing any defensive systems to protect it is a matter of concern."
As the Iraqi authorities prepare to celebrate “Sovereignty Day” (Wednesday, September 30), feelings of anxiety and fears are rising in the Kurdistan region regarding the withdrawal process.
In the absence of accurate information about the direction that American forces will take after leaving Iraqi territory, some military sources indicate that they may head to military bases in Jordan and Syria, and to the Incirlik base in Turkey.
The Union of Tire Municipalities in southern Lebanon's call for displaced people residing in schools within the city to come to the union's headquarters to transfer them to other centers in preparation for the start of the school year raised objections from families who considered that the new centers did not accommodate them, and that their equipment did not meet "the minimum requirements for adequate humanitarian housing," as they said.
The Union announced that September 30, 2026, is the last day for the school to be approved as a shelter center and that all services currently provided will stop, provided that the necessary services are provided in the new centers.
Objections of the displaced
The displaced residents of the town of Beit Lev in the city of Tire objected to the decision to transfer them to neighboring villages, and said in a statement that, “After reviewing these centers, it became clear to us that they can only accommodate a very limited number of families, while the number of families displaced from the town is about 250, which makes these centers unable to accommodate this number, in addition to that their conditions and equipment do not meet the minimum requirements for adequate humanitarian housing.”
The people warned against “any attempt to harass or pressure displaced families to force them to evacuate, including cutting off water, electricity, or any basic services, while holding the relevant authorities responsible for any repercussions that may result from such measures.”
Tire Municipality
On the other hand, the mayor of Tyre, Hussein Dabouq, confirmed that “evacuating the city’s schools is aimed at launching the academic year, because the priority now is to educate the people of Tyre, as well as the children of our displaced families,” stressing that “better centers have been secured within the scope of the Tyre district, and all necessary services will be available in them.”
Dabouq pointed out in a statement to Asharq Al-Awsat that “those who object to leaving prefer to remain within the city because that makes it easier for them to move around and reach their work.” But in the end, there is an academic year that must begin, and many have begun heading to the new centers that have been secured, some of which are non-functioning schools, and other centers that have become equipped.” He added: “We are communicating with the parties active in the region to help convince people to vacate the city’s schools, and there is a response from them.”
IDPs from Tire
According to official figures obtained by Asharq Al-Awsat, the number of displaced people who took refuge in Tire district during the war is about 147 thousand, about 111 of whom returned, while the rest of them are still living in shelter centers, and the rest are living in rented homes or with relatives.
According to researcher Muhammad Shams al-Din, the total number of displaced people in Lebanon is 124,000, most of whom are from occupied villages. He pointed out in a statement to Asharq Al-Awsat that there are only 28 schools hosting displaced people.
Ministry of Education numbers
Ministry of Education figures obtained by Asharq Al-Awsat indicate that there are 72 open shelter centers distributed in most Lebanese regions as follows:
49 public education institutions, 13 vocational and technical education institutions, and one center affiliated with the Lebanese University, in addition to 9 Ministry of Education facilities.
The Ministry’s sources indicate that “its current plan is to reduce these centers to 10, and work is also being done with those concerned to ensure that schools and educational facilities are not exclusively centers for sheltering displaced persons.”
The Ministry of Education has developed a flexible plan to start the current school year, based on the fact that circumstances differ from one region to another and between one school and another, whether in terms of the security situation or the extent of the damage to school buildings as a result of the war. The Ministry's initial assessment showed that 436 educational facilities were affected by the attacks.
The plan relies on more than one educational model and is based on dealing with each school according to its security reality, its readiness, and its ability to receive students.
According to the plan, 161 public schools will operate fully in person in the South and Nabatieh governorates, including 133 schools in the South and 28 in Nabatieh. There are also 63 schools in Nabatieh that will adopt in-person or distance education depending on developments in the security situation.
As for the schools that will continue to host displaced people in the south and Nabatieh, they are 14 schools that will combine shelter and education at the same time, including 10 schools in the south and 4 in Nabatieh.
Relief teams in the Gaza Strip face an arduous task of removing approximately 61 million tons of rubble left by the war, with bodies believed to still be buried under the rubble, in addition to unexploded ordnance and damaged buildings that may collapse at any moment.
According to the British newspaper The Guardian, the United Nations estimates that getting rid of the bulk of the rubble could take between 7 and 10 years and cost billions of dollars, making the operation one of the largest rubble removal operations in modern history.
“We are trying to empty the sea with a spoon.”
In the Tel al-Hawa neighborhood of Gaza City, UN engineers are working to open roads blocked by piles of stones and the remains of destroyed homes and shops. Engineer Ahmed Alyan, who works on a team affiliated with the World Food Program (WFP), described the scale of the mission, saying: “I feel as if we are trying to empty the sea using a spoon.”
According to Jaco Cilliers, Special Representative of the United Nations Development Program in Palestine, the estimated amount of rubble in Gaza is 61 million tons, which is approximately 20 times the amount of rubble resulting from all the wars in the world during the past 18 years.
Although more than two years have passed since the start of the removal operations, only about 907,000 tons have been disposed of, with more than 300,000 tons recycled, which represents only about 1.5 percent of the total rubble.
The rubble hides thousands of bodies
The difficulty of the task is not limited to the large amount of rubble, as estimates by the United Nations Development Program indicate that there may be between 8,000 and 10,000 bodies still buried under the rubble.
Nihal Abu Hassan, a member of the World Food Program team, said: “The rubble in some areas does not just represent rubble for people, but rather represents their entire lives and memories. In some cases, there may be bodies still under the rubble, so its removal is a very sensitive issue for families and communities.”
UN agencies, in cooperation with the International Committee of the Red Cross, are working to determine the locations of the bodies and arrange priorities for their recovery.
Unexploded bombs and buildings threatened to collapse
Rubble removal teams face the danger of unexploded ordnance scattered among the rubble and on the roads. Therefore, the United Nations teams coordinate with the authorities concerned with demining and international organizations to identify dangerous areas and place warning signs before starting work.
In addition to the danger of explosives, the rubble may contain other dangerous materials, including asbestos, which can pose a serious health risk when its fibers are inhaled, while partially damaged buildings pose an additional danger, as they may collapse suddenly after residents return to them.
Recycling rubble to meet the needs of residents
With the difficulty of bringing equipment and construction materials into the Strip, UN agencies have begun reusing the rubble instead of disposing of it entirely. The rubble is sorted to remove metal and iron bars, then the concrete blocks are broken into smaller sizes for use in repairing roads, filling potholes, and raising tents and shelters from rainwater and sewage.
The UNDP relies on seven rock crushers already in Gaza, due to the inability to bring in new equipment.
Nihal Abu Hassan said: “These materials cannot be compared to the natural materials usually used in paving roads. Their quality is lower, and it is more difficult to handle, but there is no alternative. These solutions were imposed on us by the reality in which we live.”
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The withdrawal of international coalition forces from all Iraqi territories, including the Kurdistan region, will be completed by September 30, 2026.
Very likely · Within months
IDPs in Tyre will continue to object to being removed from schools unless alternative shelters are provided that meet the minimum requirements for adequate humanitarian housing.
Likely · Within weeks
Clearing the rubble in Gaza will take between 7 and 10 years, at a cost of billions of dollars, according to UN estimates.
Likely · Within years

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