The Social Democrats return the probe mission after the Left Party's support for Norlén

On Monday morning, the Social Democrats gave up the probe mission. Party leader Magdalena Andersson was clear about what it was due to: the Left Party's decision to stand behind moderate Andreas Norlén's re-election as speaker.

- Thus, a new constellation has been formed in the Riksdag of left-wing parties and moderates, says the S leader.

Although the tone between the parties is turned up, Tommy Möller, professor of political science at Stockholm University, believes that it is mainly about tactics and negotiating moves.

The S play about a constellation between V and M he does not give much for:

- No one takes it seriously. And it's not serious.

Why not?

- Magdalena Andersson is quite annoyed that the Left Party chooses to support a moderate speaker. It had been assumed and taken for granted that the largest party, the Social Democrats, would get to appoint the Speaker. Now the whole thing became a pawn in the government formation game.

Li Bennich-Björkman, professor of political science at Uppsala University, is on the same track. She does not believe that the Social Democrats are boiling over the Left Party's choice to cast their votes for Norlén.

- It is a kind of spectacle. The Sossarna respond to the Left Party's move with something that seems to be even worse. I don't think emotions have much to do with this right now anyway.

Both political scientists see the risk of by-elections as small.

- Four unsuccessful prime ministerial votes are required for by-elections. So far there hasn't been a single one, says Li Bennich-Björkman.

In addition, according to the preparatory work for the constitution, each vote must have a very good chance of being accepted by the majority in the Riksdag, Möller points out.

- It is stated that by-elections should be avoided. But that doesn't mean it can't be anyway. The risk is small, but you never know. As I said, the positions are locked.

If Ulf Kristersson gets the probe assignment next, Tommy Möller assesses that it will be very difficult to get the Center Party on board. This applies even if the Sweden Democrats do not get ministerial positions and C gets through much of his policy.

- The Center Party could not be clearer. They have very clearly rejected that option. They believe that the Moderates have closed the door on the government issue because they want to cooperate with the Sweden Democrats.

Li Bennich-Björkman says that the betrayal debate about the Center Party's choice of path had been too great.

- The centre's voters, especially the younger ones in the big cities, see the SD not only as wrong ideologically, but also as idiots.

At the same time, opinion polls can influence the balance of power in the negotiations going forward, Möller believes.

- If it is the case that there is a complete standstill in the government negotiations and it turns out that the voters are punishing one of the parties, then it is a problem for that party in the government negotiations.

The fact that Magdalena Andersson has completed her first probe mission does not necessarily mean that there cannot be talks and negotiations between S, V, MP and C in the coming time, Möller points out. He still considers a government solution that includes the four parties as most likely.

- No one can say how this will end. However, it is still likely that the majority that has been established will somehow form a government.

Read more:

Magdalena Andersson hands back the probe assignment

Tomas Ramberg: Cold war between V and S