India's RBI diaspora fundraising may cost up to $12.7 billion over five years

India's central bank secured record diaspora funds, exceeding projections significantly. This fundraising effort may incur substantial costs for the Reserve Bank of India. The RBI agreed to shield banks from currency risks on these foreign deposits. These operations could cost up to 1.2 trillion rupees over five years. The central bank aims to manage these fiscal implications through careful investment strategies.

India tapped its vast diaspora for a record $127 billion through a special deposit program, a fundraising bonanza that economists say could come with a hefty $10.6 billion bill for the country’s central bank.

The potential cost stems from the Reserve Bank’s decision to shield banks from currency risk on the funds they raised overseas. In addition to the $127 billion raised through the so called Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) plan, the RBI also attracted $9.15 billion from overseas foreign-currency debt and external commercial borrowings. That took the total inflows to $136.38 billion, exceeding the RBI’s $80 billion estimate.

Also Read: Indian banks raise over $136 bn via RBI forex swap, FCNR(B) deposits dominate inflows

The central bank had agreed to protect banks through a favorable swap facility estimated to cost 3%-3.5% annually for three to five years. The RBI will also have to absorb the extra rupees entering the banking system when lenders exchange their dollars with the central bank.

The two operations could cost as much as 1.2 trillion rupees ($12.7 billion) over five years, according to an analysis by Madhavi Arora, economist with Emkay Global Financial Services.

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The RBI did not immediately reply to an email sent seeking details on the cost.

The special window was offered in June to shield the rupee from sliding after hitting record lows. The RBI offered to take on the risk of currency-hedging costs of FCNR deposits, and lenders offered loans amounting to up to 19 times the original deposit.

For now, the RBI doesn’t see the cost as a major concern because the final bill will depend partly on how the dollar proceeds are invested, according to a person familiar with the RBI’s thinking.

Repayment is unlikely to pose a major problem as India’s foreign-exchange reserves are expected to rise over the years from about $730 billion now and provide enough buffer to cover the amount raised. The person asked not to be identified because the matter isn’t public.

One risk is the potential impact on the RBI’s dividend to the government. The central bank transferred a record 2.87 trillion rupees in May, compared with 2.69 trillion rupees a year earlier.

Any reduction in the dividend could make it harder for the government to meet its budget targets.

“The funds raised, therefore, need to be deployed judiciously and productively to mitigate these first-order and second-order fiscal costs,” Emkay Global’s Arora said.

Also Read: Indian banks slash FCNR deposit rates by up to 310 basis points

The RBI could offset some of those costs by investing the dollars abroad. If the money is invested in 10-year US Treasuries yielding about 4.7%, the RBI could earn more in interest than it spends on hedging.

“On a net basis, per year cost could be as low as 100 billion rupees, or even marginally positive for the RBI,” said Gaura Sengupta, economist at IDFC First Bank Ltd.