In the conversations, the message conveyed is that there is no interest in promoting an institutional confrontation, despite the fact that one of the main flags of Bolsonarism and the senators elected by the PL is precisely the impeachment of Supreme Court ministers.
These interlocutors have said that they do not want a fight or confusion with the Judiciary. At the same time, they recognize that it will be necessary to evaluate the new composition of the Senate, where the pressure for the impeachment of ministers should gain strength.
This attempt at rapprochement is also of interest to different groups within the Supreme Court, starting with Minister Alexandre de Moraes himself. The behind-the-scenes assessment is that there are agendas of common interest between sectors of the Court and a possible Flávio Bolsonaro government, which could open space for broader negotiation.
The Supreme Court is also doing its own math. Ministers assess that not all senators elected with their speech opposing the STF will be willing to support this position after taking office. There are parliamentarians who respond to investigations or may become the target of criminal complaints — those elected for 2027, including.
In the words of a member of the Judiciary, the expectation is that there will be a lot of "tigro turning into tchutchuca" when these parliamentarians take up their mandates. It is a factor considered in the political calculations of members of the Supreme Court, who do not see the future Bolsonaro bench as a necessarily homogeneous bloc.
Another message conveyed to Flávio Bolsonaro's interlocutors is that any government that focuses its energies on confronting the Supreme Court runs the risk of having a paralyzing effect on the administration itself. The assessment is that an institutional war could compromise the ability to govern and advance other agendas.
Marinho, coordinator of Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign, is one of the main defenders of confronting the Supreme Court and has been working to take command of the House. But there is already an articulation within the PL itself to prevent his election. Party members believe that Marinho has become too strong politically and, in the expression used by some interlocutors, “has risen by leaps and bounds”.
At the same time, sectors of the Centrão are working to keep Davi Alcolumbre as president of the Senate. Alcolumbre has a close relationship with Alexandre de Moraes and maintains important channels of dialogue with the STF.
The possibility of supporting Alcolumbre has also been discussed with people very close to Flávio Bolsonaro. The choice of the next president of the Senate will be decisive in defining the fate of impeachment requests against Supreme Court ministers. Therefore, the dispute for the presidency of the House became a central part of the negotiations on the relationship between a possible Flávio Bolsonaro government and the Judiciary.
There is also a third issue considered strategic in these articulations: the next appointment to the STF. Behind the scenes, political sectors are discussing the possibility that, in the event of Lula's defeat, the president would make a nomination at the end of the year, before leaving office.
One of the names considered in this scenario is Rodrigo Pacheco, an ally of Davi Alcolumbre and close to ministers such as Gilmar Mendes and Alexandre de Moraes. The assessment of this group is that a nomination by Pacheco, followed by approval by the Senate later this year, could change the internal balance of the Supreme Court even before the inauguration of a possible Flávio Bolsonaro government.
Pacheco is seen as a name aligned with the group of Gilmar Mendes, Alexandre de Moraes, Flávio Dino and Cristiano Zanin. With his eventual arrival, this group would now have, in the political calculations made behind the scenes, five ministers close to each other. This composition would have weight in the court's future internal disputes, especially in a scenario of increased tensions between the Judiciary, Congress and a new government. What is at stake, therefore, goes far beyond Flávio Bolsonaro's personal relationship with the Supreme Court ministers.
