Israel will go to the polls: Critical election for Netanyahu

Israelis are preparing to go to the polls for general elections on October 27. This election will be the first to be held since the October 7, 2023 attacks, which shook the country and dragged the Middle East into turmoil with Israel's invasion of Gaza and its entry into war in Lebanon and Iran.

Although polls predict that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be defeated, elections can follow a complicated process in Israel, which has a fragmented political system. In this system, it is possible for any party to become decisive in the formation of the government.

Back-to-back polls show that Netanyahu is on track to lose the elections. The October 7 attacks destroyed Netanyahu's security reputation. Although the Israeli public largely supports the wars against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, polls show that trust in Netanyahu's leadership is low.

However, Israel's longest-serving leader, Netanyahu, is someone who has experience of somehow surviving politically. Polls so far have also not revealed a clear path his rivals could follow to come to power.

VERY FEW COUNCILERS WERE ABLE TO COMPLETE THEIR TERMS OF OFFICE

Elections in Israel are held within the framework of the parliamentary system. Elections for the 120-seat Knesset are expected to be held every four years. However, in practice, very few Knesset members were able to complete their term.

Israel had entered a cycle of short-lived governments and repeated elections that began in 2019 and ends in 2022. Netanyahu won a strong majority in parliament in 2022 and returned to power at the head of the most right-wing government in Israeli history.

The upcoming election will be one of the rare instances in which the Knesset is able to complete its term.

Seats in the Knesset are distributed according to the system of proportional representation to party lists that receive at least 3.25 percent of the votes cast nationwide. This ratio corresponds to four seats.

NO PARTY CAN GET THE MAJORITY

Since no party in Israel can obtain a majority in the parliament on its own, governments are formed by coalitions between parties. Coalitions can dissolve in a short time when disagreements between parties arise.

This gives smaller parties significant influence over who becomes prime minister and how long the government remains in office.

Netanyahu relied on ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties to maintain his political existence. These parties' demands that their communities be largely exempt from compulsory military service have sparked heated debate in Israel. These discussions became more intense during the war period.

Netanyahu's coalition; It consists of his own right-wing Likud, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich's pro-settler Religious Zionism Party, and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's far-right Jewish Power Party.

The ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties United Torah Judaism and Shas left the government in 2024 but supported its survival.

WHO IS COMPETING AGAINST NETANYAHU?

Those running against Netanyahu include Yashar Party leader Eisenkot, Bennett and Lapid's Together Party, and Lieberman's Israel Our Home Party, which finds support among immigrants from former Soviet countries.

In addition, four parties that largely represent Israel's 20 percent Arab minority, Hadash, Ta'al, Ra'am and Balad, and the left-leaning Democrats led by former general Yair Golan, also aim to remove Netanyahu from power.