Italy will lose almost four million inhabitants by 2050

Italy will shrink significantly in the coming decades - not in area, but in population. The country is expected to lose almost four million inhabitants by 2050, according to new forecasts from the Istat statistics office. The number of inhabitants will therefore fall from 58.9 million (at the beginning of 2025) to 55 million in 2050. A decline to 45.8 million is expected by 2080.

According to Istat, the reason for the decline is primarily demographic change, i.e. the negative natural population development: for the comparatively few births, there are more and more deaths. Although immigration could partially cushion the decline, it was not enough to offset it, it was said.

The number of births in Italy has been falling continuously for several years. Last year, fewer children were born than ever since the end of the Second World War - Istat recorded only 355,000 births in 2025. According to statistics, a woman in Italy will have 1.14 children.

The low birth rate in the once child-rich country has long been one of Italy's major problems. In Europe, the rate is only lower in a few countries such as Spain and Malta. According to the Federal Statistical Office, the birth rate in Germany was 1.32 children per woman in 2025.

Meloni wanted to promote birth rates

According to the latest report, Istat expects the annual number of births to remain broadly stable until 2030. But by 2050 it will decline to 335,000. The Rome-based statistics office predicts a constant increase in the number of annual deaths.

Demographic change will place a heavy burden on Italy's economy in the long term. In her first government declaration, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni declared that promoting the birth rate would be a political goal of her right-wing government and she appointed a “birth minister”. However, the downward trend continues even after almost four years in office under her government.

This trend has been evident for years. “We are all shitty mothers”: The birth rate in Italy continues to fall, and the country is at the bottom of the list even in a European comparison. Blogger Sarah Malnerich explains why this is – and her campaign against it. Read the interview here.