A historic breakthrough and a potential first since the end of Nazi Germany. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is in the lead for the regional elections in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday September 6. In this eastern Land of the country, the movement receives on average 42% of voting intentions, according to the poll aggregator Dawum, and has a considerable lead over the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), given between 22 and 23%.
If the figures are confirmed at the polls on Sunday evening, the far right could be able to build a majority and take the head of a regional government. A scenario not seen since the end of the Second World War in Germany. The head of the AfD list in Saxony-Anhalt, the popular and radical Ulrich Siegmund, advocates a “culture of expulsions”, the establishment of citizen patrols and an end to the financing of associations. He embodies the local surge of the party, which received half as many votes five years ago. A progression that mirrors a similar trend on a national scale: opinion surveys today credit the far right with 28% in the federal elections, according to the poll aggregator Politico, compared to 20.8% in 2025.
The local context firstly explains the rise of the AfD in Saxony-Anhalt. The Land with 2.1 million inhabitants does not resemble the rest of Germany. This territory, extensive without being very populated, is one of the least dense in the country. Its rural identity is strong: almost 80% of the Land's population lives in rural areas, according to the region's website. “In Europe, we know that this type of territory is more likely to vote for the extreme right,” underlines Sabine Volk, researcher at the Institute for Research on the Extreme Right at the German University of Tübingen. Recent elections confirm this: the AfD is making more progress in rural areas, further away from urban and economic centers, according to research by his colleague Rolf Frankenberger, published on The Conversation.
The feeling of being downgraded, a vector of anger
To push its message, the party relies on a resentment which crosses Saxony-Anhalt like a large part of eastern Germany, less favored than the West. GDP per capita there is around 38,500 euros, compared to 53,500 euros for the whole of Germany, according to official statistics. "People talk about 'decline', there is a fear of downgrading" in Saxony-Anhalt, observes Jeanette Süß, political analyst on Franco-German relations at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri).
Unemployment, for example, stands at 8.2%, compared to 6.5% nationally, according to the Federal Bureau of Statistics. However, "there is an extrapolation of the economic 'decline' which does not necessarily correspond to reality", tempers Jeanette Süß. The picture is much less gloomy than twenty years ago in the former GDR. At the time, up to 20% of workers were unemployed.
The population of Saxony-Anhalt is marked by the pain of post-reunification deindustrialization. Job losses in chemicals and metallurgy at the turn of the 1990s have left their mark. Beyond the economy, the Land suffers from a significant demographic imbalance, a vector of this impression of decline. The average age there is the highest in Germany, and the region has lost, in nearly thirty years, 25% of its inhabitants, according to a note from Ifri.
“We are observing a decline in the birth rate and a demographic imbalance between men and women. Young qualified women are more inclined to leave. All of these factors create fertile ground for the far right.”
Sabine Volk, researcher at the University of Tübingen
at franceinfo
Another reality, that of limited access to public services, further aggravates "this feeling of being left behind", notes Jeanette Süß. The specialist sees in Saxony-Anhalt a certain “infrastructural desert, which does not facilitate the feeling of living together”. In the Länder of the former GDR, almost one in two inhabitants (48%) consider themselves a second-class citizen, according to a study by the Robert Bosch Foundation.
Eastern Germany is also affected by "dissatisfaction with the massive military and financial support from Berlin for kyiv", notes Jeanette Süß. In these traditionally more pacifist lands, "the AfD is capitalizing on this point. According to it, the government is 'wasting' public money on a war that is not ours, instead of better financing schools or benefits." An argument which also reflects the party's pro-Russian affinities.
The call for nostalgia for the former GDR
The far right provides identity-based responses to these grievances. Online and on the ground, the AfD seeks to seduce men in particular by pulling on several threads: their identity as East Germans, heterosexual and white men. The party, in Saxony-Anhalt, castigates "feminist ideology" and defends ultraconservative measures: the end of gender studies at university, the defense of marriages between men and women as "normality" and the promotion of the "traditional" family, according to its program translated by Le Grand Continent. He also denounces “sexual deviance” and calls for censorship of the LGBT+ flag.
A discourse that plays on masculinism, LGBTphobia and xenophobia. Faced with the feeling of decline, Ulrich Siegmund focuses his attacks on immigrants. In July, he told AFP that "uncontrolled immigration is one of the biggest problems in this country", and promised "to make life as difficult as possible for those who", in his eyes, "want to take advantage of us". While Saxony-Anhalt lacks workers, the AfD advocates the return of qualified Germans who have left the region.
"The AfD is very good at constructing the narrative that the region is losing its status. This is reminiscent of Donald Trump's Maga rhetoric of 'making the country great again.'
Sabine Volk, researcher at the University of Tübingen
at franceinfo
Furthermore, the party program defends the idea of separating refugee children from others at school. The AfD is also calling for an obligation for schools to raise the German flag. Finally, education being a regional prerogative, the party intends to "'rebalance' the weight of Nazism in the teaching of German history", warns Jeanette Süß. He hopes to "higher emphasis on the period of Bismarck and Prussia", and rejects what he sees as a "cult of guilt".
Ulrich Siegmund thus defends a certain "Ostalgia", a contraction of "Ost" (East in German) and the word "nostalgia". The candidate has already chanted the anthem of the communist state in the middle of a meeting, while organizing rides on a Simson motorcycle, a symbol of East Germany. He even promotes the teaching of Russian. A way of flattering the ego of the inhabitants of the former GDR, some of whom regret the communist period, perceived as a moment of social cohesion, homogeneity and full employment.
Village festivals and barbecues
The candidate's personality is also at the center of the AfD's strategy. Smiling and dynamic in appearance, Ulrich Siegmund, 35, "is young and has a positive attitude. He is also less extreme in his speech than Alice Weidel, the party leader, which makes him a little more likeable", notes Sabine Volk. “He does not produce ideology, but sells it very well,” adds Anna-Sophie Heinze, professor at Leuphana University in Lüneburg.
The campaign meetings, village festivals and barbecues organized by Ulrich Siegmund's team contribute to his notoriety. “The AfD offers people a way to spend time together. In regions that feel abandoned, the party makes voters feel important,” emphasizes Sabine Volk.
The far-right party is also capitalizing on its strong online presence. Ulrich Siegmund is followed by nearly 850,000 people on TikTok. “The AfD has built a complete ecosystem, thanks to a network of influencers which amplifies its visibility,” explains Sabine Volk. The far right is also helped by a disinformation campaign attributed to Russia, reports a Deutsche Welle investigation.
The movement also benefits from the strong rejection of the political class. The latest opinion barometer from the Forsa institute, published at the end of August by N-TV, mentions that only 13% of Germans are satisfied with the work of Chancellor Friedrich Merz. “Ulrich Siegmund wants to implement radical changes in education and security, this is a source of hope for AfD voters,” explains Anna-Sophie Heinze.
"Friedrich Merz has a somewhat arrogant style and a fairly negative view of the world. The complete opposite of Ulrich Siegmund, who conveys the image of someone who has an action plan for the future."
Jeanette Süß, political analyst at Ifri
at franceinfo
However, the results of the elections in Saxony-Anhalt will be closely observed by the leaders of the AfD. A victory would validate their electoral strategy of “radicalization”, underlines Sabine Volk. “It’s quite counterintuitive, because in general, far-right parties moderate to gain votes. Here, it’s the opposite, they have never been so extreme,” continues Anna-Sophie Heinze.
“Will they be able to govern?”
A victory would constitute a “big test for the AfD”, underlines Jeanette Süß. “Will they be able to govern?” The question could remain unanswered, if the latest polls are to be believed. A move by the Greens and Social Democrats above 5%, the threshold for entry into the regional Parliament, would deprive the AfD of an absolute majority.
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The other parties unanimously rejected the idea of forming a coalition with the far-right party anyway. In Saxony-Anhalt, activists promise to act to limit the AfD's measures if it comes to power. The road to finding an alternative majority, ranging from the radical left to the CDU, could prove complex.
