“The post-Trump really begins now”: the day after the midterms, how Republicans and Democrats are looking ahead to the 2028 presidential election

It's already tomorrow. Now that the mid-term elections have delivered their verdict, Wednesday November 4, Republicans and Democrats will turn their attention to the presidential election of 2028. "The post-Trump really begins now for both camps", summarizes Ludivine Gilli, specialist in the United States and director of the North America observatory of the Jean-Jaurès foundation.

Loss of the majority in the House of Representatives, loss of the majority in the Senate... It is in a very difficult context that the Republican Party will now designate a successor to Donald Trump, who can no longer run, due to the constitutional limit of two mandates.

Among the names circulating in the American media to put on the candidate costume, we find people close to the current president such as Vice-President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, but also Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, and even the polemicist Tucker Carlson.

But beyond the candidate, the party will have to decide around an ideological line, and "this promises to be complicated", warns Ludivine Gilli. “After these midterms, the electoral base is completely fractured. We saw a rejection of Donald Trump from part of his electorate, but we saw another who resisted… It will be difficult, if not impossible, to recompose the coalition which allowed Donald Trump to be elected,” analyzes the researcher.

The Republicans face a dilemma that Ludivine Gilli summarizes in these terms: "Should we continue to support Donald Trump, at the risk of scaring off voters who, in large part, did not vote or voted for the Democrats during the midterms? Or should we turn our back on this 'Maga base' (...), which represents a good half of the Republican electorate in recent years?"

Renouncing the legacy of Donald Trump? “It’s quite a balancing act that [J.D.] Vance and [Marco] Rubio, who are members of the administration, will have to do, imagines Ludivine Gilli. If they do not want to be repudiated by Donald Trump, they will have to continue to support what he will do over the next two years.”

Indeed, beware of suitors who might seek to distance themselves from the head of state. Even mild criticism could be seen as a lack of loyalty, with the risks that entails with such an eruptive leader. “Donald Trump does not appreciate being criticized,” recalls Todd Belt, political scientist at George Washington University. “It will be difficult to distance himself from him,” especially since “he will want to exert an influence on the choice of his successor.”

“Donald Trump still has his social networks, which allow him to keep the Republicans in line.”

His colleague Hans Noel, professor of political science at Georgetown University in Washington, agrees: "[Donald] Trump remains the dominant figure of the party. His influence could diminish now that he is at the end of his term, but many Republicans thought they could turn the page on Trump in 2024. However, he continued to exert his influence on the party."

Once the euphoria of the midterms has subsided, the Democratic Party will also have to look towards 2028. "The sequence which opens for the Democrats is also complicated, but for very different reasons, remarks Ludivine Gilli. The Democrats won these midterm elections above all by mobilizing the anti-Trump. They could have achieved much lower scores. It was not a vote of support for their ideas."

“During this campaign, they highlighted the issue of the cost of living, particularly in the areas of health, housing, energy… But that is really not enough.”

Todd Belt highlights the same trap. “The Democrats risk misinterpreting the result of these elections. They were primarily about the fact that [Donald] Trump is making the economic situation worse, and about very few other things,” recalls the American political scientist. It's up to them to draw up a program for 2028. "They must offer voters reasons to vote for them, and not just reasons to vote against [Donald] Trump. They must develop a program that they can present to the Americans by saying: 'Here's what we intend to do for you. Here's how we intend to improve your daily life.' Without this, the trend could well be reversed again."

There remains the question of the positioning to adopt: more, or less to the left than the traditional party line? “There are more progressive currents among the Democrats and others that are more moderate,” confirms Hans Noel. “Both tendencies have won victories and can both claim to influence the direction of the party. The Democrats will therefore have to work to find internal compromises.”