Bitcoin under pressure from US rates and oil

Between two evils, we must choose the lesser. Bitcoin (BTC) does not have this luxury: it suffers both evils at the same time. This Monday morning, the price fell back below 84,000 dollars, to 83,248 dollars precisely, down 1.34% over 24 hours. Over seven days, however, it still increased by 2.30%, and by 7.32% over one month: today's drop does not erase the recent rise, it slows it down. The same double grip of rates and oil was already holding the market in check this weekend. The capitalization falls to around 1.67 trillion dollars, for an aggregate trading volume which runs between 20 and 22 billion over 24 hours depending on market aggregates.

The 10-year closed Friday at 5.17%, its highest level since 2007.

The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds, a benchmark for the cost of risk-free money, ended the week at 5.17% on Friday. A level more revised since 2007, and clearly above the previous peak of October 2023, which peaked around 5.00-5.02%. This Monday's cash session has not yet delivered its verdict at this early hour. It is therefore impossible to announce a precise movement for today, only to note that the starting ground is already tense.

Each additional tenth of a point makes a sovereign debt deemed safe a little more attractive, in the face of a volatile asset which still pays nothing to its holders. The big managers make their calculations on this basis, not on the hope of a rebound.

Brent climbs to $98.34, Hormuz remains under maximum tension

Second front, it does not calm down any further. ICE Brent futures for December delivery are trading this morning at $98.34 per barrel, up 0.92% from the previous close of $97.44, according to Investing.com. The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately a fifth of the world's oil passes, is not a completely closed barrier: traffic there is severely restricted, the routes imposed by Tehran and war assurances have become prohibitive. Trump rejected an Iranian proposal on Sunday, and Iran still conditions reopening on the end of the US blockade.

This combination makes the math for large wallets crystal clear, in a bad way for bitcoin. A bond yield at its highest since 2007 and an energy bill under pressure form a formidable duo to siphon off speculative appetite. You don't need a complicated chart to understand it: money goes where it pays the best, and right now, it's not to an asset that doesn't pay a coupon.