Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro technically tie in Datafolha survey on the eve of the first round

On the eve of the first round vote scheduled for this Sunday (4), the campaigns of Lula (PT) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) are still waiting for a final boost to reach a probable second round in better conditions compared to their opponent.

In the Datafolha survey released this Saturday (3), the day before the vote, Lula recorded 45% of valid voting intentions, compared to 42% for Flávio, a technical tie. In the previous survey, released on Thursday (1st), the president scored 45%, and the senator, 40%. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points.

The reaction of Lula's allies interviewed privately by the report varied. Some expressed a level of discouragement with the results of the survey. Another, more numerous part, focused on the success of the last street events of the PT campaign.

This Saturday, the president closed the campaign with a march on Rua Augusta, in São Paulo, which occupied several blocks. Furthermore, a survey of the party's internal consumer voting intentions – which cannot be disclosed according to electoral law – shows the PT member with a greater advantage over Flávio.

Experts in electoral research from the Lulista alliance interviewed by the report on condition of anonymity assess that the movement captured by Datafolha is probably a useful vote in favor of Flávio Bolsonaro. In other words, voters who reject Lula, but who were inclined to vote for another candidate, changing their minds and supporting the PT's most viable opponent from the first round.

In this line of reasoning, there could be a useful vote movement even among those who declare that they will vote blank or invalid. The direction of this flow would depend on which of the two main candidates the voter rejects most.

As Folha showed, the PL's campaign strategy in the final stretch was the request for a useful vote to mobilize anti-PTism around Flávio and deplete the other right-wing candidacies, such as Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), Renan Santos (Missão) and Augusto Cury (Avante). The senator has asked voters not to split their vote and choose him in the first round.

Members of Flávio's campaign claim to observe a downward or stagnant trend for Lula, while Flávio would continue to rise. They hope that the Bolsonarist will finish ahead after this Sunday's count, which would favor the PL candidate in the second stage of the dispute, in which he should inherit more votes than the PT candidate from the defeated right-wing candidates.

Flávio's supporters also hope to benefit from two last-minute phenomena. Firstly, they claim to be betting on the so-called anti-PTism of arrival, that is, a wave against President Lula that may not have been captured in the polls.

Furthermore, they expect that abstention will harm the PT member. Voter withdrawal from voting generally affects the elderly and lower-income groups, in which Lula has a greater advantage over Flávio.