After Bärbel Bas's resignation from her top positions and the associated serious accusations from the SPD against the Union, the question of the future arises for the black-red coalition.
Michael Bröcker, editor-in-chief of Table.Media, said about both partners: “They are slipping into a coalition that may even end up self-destructing, even though, when you talk to them in private, they don’t want it.” Bröcker was a guest on the podcast of Axel Springer Global Reporter Paul Ronzheimer.
From Bröcker's point of view, the relationship between the two coalition partners has now been seriously damaged: "The trust has been destroyed. People don't treat themselves to anything anymore," is his diagnosis. The conflict has increasingly left the factual level and reached a personal level.
However, according to Bröcker's analysis, this crisis has a remarkable effect: Friedrich Merz is experiencing a political turning point, both in the CDU and in his dealings with his coalition partner.
According to Bröcker's description, the anger over the SPD attacks in the Union is so great that "the CDU is now less working on the Chancellor and more supporting him." In the Merz camp it is now said: “Our enemy, especially in these times, is the SPD.” The party is therefore closing its ranks and is much more united behind the Chancellor's course than before the most recent escalation.
On the other hand, the Chancellor now actually has nothing to lose in his relationship with the SPD, which is why his tone will change. “He will no longer show any consideration for the SPD,” said Bröcker. Instead, the belief is growing in the Chancellery that the Social Democrats are slowing down key reform projects and have further intensified the confrontation of the past few days. "He will now want to make announcements to the SPD. He wants to implement the reforms."
Behind this tougher approach, Bröcker sees a chancellor who is increasingly distancing himself from classic political considerations. According to his assessment, Merz has accepted that he will hardly improve his popularity ratings. “He knows that he will no longer be the favorite,” says Bröcker. He also made a similar statement at the employers' conference, where Bröcker himself was on the podium as a moderator.
He therefore perceives a new attitude around the Chancellor: “The Chancellor has a certain mood right now,” Bröcker quoted one of Merz’s “people”. "He (the Chancellor, editor) doesn't give a shit now. He's now going 'all in'," said Bröcker. Political caution is therefore replaced by an attempt to use the remaining time to implement central reforms. Merz had always been accused of letting the SPD dictate his politics.
For Bröcker, however, this logic does not only apply to the Chancellor. SPD leader Lars Klingbeil is also in a difficult political situation. "Actually, both of them have nothing left to lose. Neither Friedrich Merz, who himself said he would no longer be a 'favorite of the nation' anyway, but neither does Lars Klingbeil," says Bröcker.
From his point of view, this explains why the Union and the SPD will resolve their conflicts much more aggressively. Those who can no longer rely on short-term gains in popularity also have more freedom to make unpopular decisions or accept political confrontations.
According to Bröcker's explanation, Merz now hardly ever bothers with surveys. “If he’s in such a tunnel that he doesn’t even read things like that anymore, the way people think about them, then he’ll do what he thinks is right.” And further: "He knows that he can no longer run, even if this government still holds. He knows that he may have this historic opportunity to reform and modernize this country."
However, according to Bröcker's analysis, this strategy is also associated with risks. He therefore said of Merz: “He wants to put pressure on, maximum pressure, without having a plan B.” Instead of looking for a way out, Merz is putting everything into implementing his reform agenda. If necessary, Merz will push forward his own projects against all resistance in order to blame the political price of the coalition's failure on his partner. "That's of course the only leverage he has left. Namely the buck," says Bröcker.
However, Bröcker does not consider a minority government to be a likely way out of the crisis. "The Chancellor doesn't want them. He doesn't believe in them," he says. This scenario is being discussed intensively in Berlin. But: “There is no one in the executive committee who is really pushing this,” says Bröcker.
According to Bröcker's analysis, instead of a minority government, Merz is relying on forcing the coalition to implement reforms under maximum pressure. However, it remains to be seen whether this will succeed. Bröcker therefore answers the question of the future as follows: “It will now become even harder, more hardened and sharper in the dispute between these parties rather than de-escalating.”
