Midterms 2026: hard hit by Donald Trump's trade wars, will Republican farmers change sides?

A few days before the midterms, these decisive mid-term elections for Donald Trump who could lose his parliamentary majority, "Special Envoy" met with disillusioned Americans. In the Midwest, Ohio, long considered a swing state, has voted Republican overwhelmingly for several elections. Rural and agricultural, it has more than 75,000 farms, most of them family-owned, mainly producing corn and soya. And here, the trade war launched by the president has had serious consequences.

Chris Gibbs and his son operate a 200-hectare farm, where they grow corn, soybeans and alfalfa to feed their 90 cows. The sixty-year-old has long supported the Republican camp, but he became disillusioned during Trump's first term, since his soybean harvest "lost 20% of its value overnight." When the American president increased customs duties for the first time in 2018, China, which bought half of its production, drastically reduced its imports to turn to Brazil: “They concluded a trade agreement and we lost the entire market,” explains Chris Gibbs.

Added to Trump's trade battles is the war against Iran, which has sent fuel and fertilizer prices soaring. American farmers' costs have exploded, outstripping their profits. “Our cash flow has been in the red for three years,” says Chris Gibbs.

Affected by the portfolio, the Republican changed sides in 2023. This former representative of Donald Trump's party in his county is now fighting for the Democrats. “Special Envoy” followed him to Peebles, in southern Ohio, where he was invited to an election picnic. He came to help the activists in an attempt to swing the Trumpist electorate in this state, which votes 83% Republican. No need to agitate great ideals like freedom or justice, he advises them to be concrete, the Democrats having earned the reputation of being "disconnected from daily concerns"... Despite this "tarnished image", they could obtain the majority of seats in the House of Representatives and the Senate, the issue of the November 3 election.