MSCI World in 2026: Between the AI boom, US dominance and hidden risks

Berlin. 2026 is not an easy year for investors. The rollercoaster of AI hype and fear of an AI bubble is causing the share prices of tech companies such as Alphabet, Nvidia and Amazon to fluctuate greatly. The Middle East conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have moved the stock markets several times, be it because of new fighting or short-term ceasefires.

Nevertheless, the MSCI World stock index, which is considered a classic among German ETF savers, has seen a price increase of around 20 percent for the past 365 days. It is therefore on a similar level as gold and was definitely a much better alternative than investing in Bitcoin.

At the same time, however, the MSCI World is no longer as broadly based as many investors assume. Accordingly, investors should ask themselves some important questions before investing. Because an investment in the MSCI World is currently a bet on several factors.

Compared to the decline in the first half of 2025, the dollar has recovered significantly against the euro. At that time, the currency collapse was one of the main reasons why the return on the MSCI World 2025 was worse for European investors than in previous years. The dollar is currently three percent above the bottom in January 2026.

And yet the latest fluctuations are a reaction to the course of US Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, who no longer wants to announce every interest rate move to market participants in advance. This shows that the dollar's reputation as a stable global currency is tarnished. Michaela Hönig, professor of asset management at the Frankfurt University of Applied Sciences, speaks of a “politicization of the economy” under US President Donald Trump, which makes it not easy for investors to make the right decisions.

After all: With an ETF with currency hedging, the currency risk can be cushioned to some extent. In the largest currency-hedged ETF on the MSCI World from the provider Blackrock, for example, forward currency transactions are carried out monthly.

In addition to its dependence on the dollar, the composition of the MSCI World is also heavily weighted towards the USA. Companies from the United States make up the largest country share of the MSCI World, at more than 70 percent.

This has been known for years and means that investment advisors see an investment in the MSCI World as a “momentum” investment. One bets that stocks that are doing well will continue to perform well.

Against this background, the influence of the tech sector has grown even further in recent months. It now makes up around 29 percent of the index. The US chip company Nvidia alone has a weight of around five percent - more than all German companies combined. This means that the performance of the index depends more than ever on a few US tech companies.

Ulrich Stephan, chief investment strategist for private customers in Germany at Deutsche Bank, also thinks so: “Broader development in the market with easing global uncertainties would certainly be desirable,” he says. However, he generally doesn't find concentration to be a problem because the leading companies are making high profits.

However, the dependence of the MSCI World on the chip industry is particularly clear. Ludovic Subran, Chief Investment Officer of Allianz, even speaks of “oligopoly-like” structures. “In some segments of the chip supply chain there are only a handful of players, sometimes even just one,” he explains. The names of these players are well known: Nvidia, TSMC, ASML.

This means that on paper the semiconductor industry only accounts for around twelve percent of the weight in the MSCI World. However, around 19 percent of the movement in the MSCI World correlates with changes in the chip index SOX, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.

Professor Hönig therefore speaks of a hidden concentration in relation to the chip industry: “As an investor, it is extremely difficult to really see these different influencing factors.” Strategist Stephan takes a similar view, assuming that around 30 percent of all values ​​in the MSCI World are seen as being influenced by AI and the chip industry in the broadest sense.

The fact that the correlation between the market movements of MSCI World and SOX has not decreased over time also speaks for the continued great influence of the chip industry.

According to the experts, anyone who bets on the MSCI World is essentially betting on a further boom in the chip industry. There are good reasons for this assumption.

Subran and his colleagues come to the conclusion that the current chip boom is not unfounded. The Allianz experts assume, among other things, that the demand pipeline for AI use and therefore for chips is solid. At the same time, they see the lead of the large chip companies over their competitors as big enough to avoid getting caught up in a downward price war.

The situation is difficult for another group of investors: those who expect the Strait of Hormuz crisis to impact the chip supply chain. Those who distrust the data center expansion of the so-called hyperscalers - i.e. the cloud providers who operate data centers with millions of servers worldwide. Or those who even fear an attack by China on Taiwan.

It's not just the MSCI World that could be severely affected by such developments. Alternatives such as the MSCI Emerging Markets are potentially even more vulnerable due to the large country weight of China, Taiwan and South Korea.

Hönig sees the only way out here through other industry ETFs that have performed well recently, such as in the areas of medical technology, cybersecurity or sustainability. Here, however, there is a lot of US weight, which can become a problem again.