In a planned and predictable scenario in Morocco, the Party of Authenticity and Modernity (PAM, center-right), founded two decades ago by Fuad Ali el Himma, former minister and main advisor to King Mohamed VI, has been the most voted, with 97 of the 395 seats up for grabs, in the legislative elections held on Wednesday, according to provisional results announced this Thursday by the Ministry of the Interior. With 11 more deputies than in the 2021 elections, the victory of the political force closest to the monarch (who, according to the Constitution, must entrust him with the formation of the Government), has been overshadowed by an abstention bordering on 62% of those registered in the census, in which four out of every ten potential voters had not voluntarily registered.
Moroccans have largely turned their backs on the polls amid citizen detachment from the political class and criticism over the high cost of living, in elections that have only yielded internal alternation within the same power bloc. But above all, the elections reflect the massive expression of discontent among young people, who a year ago took to the streets in the Generation Z protests and who two months ago stormed the Ceuta border by tens of thousands in search of a better future. Only 4% of those under 24 years of age had registered to vote.
"Less than one in four Moroccans of voting age has participated [in the elections]. If we add to this the high number of null and blank votes, Morocco's main democratic challenge becomes clear: it is not simply a question of how the elections are organized, but of whether the political institutions inspire confidence and guarantee significant representation," emphasized this Thursday a statement released in Rabat by the mission of electoral observers sent by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe.
With the lowest electoral participation rate in 20 years (11 percentage points lower than in 2021), the National Rally of Independents (RNI, conservative) of the outgoing Prime Minister, Aziz Ajanuch, has been relegated to second place, with 66 seats (36 less than five years ago), after suffering a drop of a third of its representation. The third member of the outgoing government coalition, the historic Istiqlal Party (Independence, conservative nationalist), has stepped on its heels with 65 deputies (but also with a decline of 16 seats) in the House of Representatives or lower house, the only elected one of Parliament.
The three current government partners, with 228 seats, far exceed the bar for absolute majority in the chamber (198), but have seen their parliamentary hegemony reduced with a joint decline of 41 votes, in an apparent punishment vote that is added to the abstention vote. The Justice and Development Party (PJD, a moderate Islamist) has benefited from this withdrawal of the majority with fourth position, which was at the head of the Executive between 2011 and 2021 after the constitutional reforms promoted by the Arab Spring. It obtains 54 seats with a significant return to the parliamentary scene, since in the elections held five years before it plummeted from 125 to only 13 deputies.
The Islamists now present themselves as the only real opposition force to the rest of the formations present in the new Chamber, a nebula of minority groups without decisive political weight. Its traditional leader, former Prime Minister Abdelilá Benkirán, has led a tough campaign against corruption attributed to the government majority parties, whom he accused of “practices of predation of public resources.” In addition, he has raised the flag against the normalization of relations with Israel, recently raised to the highest level with the opening of embassies. This Thursday he rejected a possible coalition with the PAM.
"It is striking that the Islamists of the PJD have obtained electoral profitability from the drift of Moroccan foreign policy towards Israel. Their fourth position, close to the [official] Istiqlal Party, represents an important leap," analyzes Bernabé López García, an Arab expert in Morocco. This honorary professor at the Autonomous University of Madrid also sees the advance of the Left Alliance (which goes from one to eight seats) another symptom of popular discontent. “The downward evolution of participation since the sixties shows the failure of the political system in the eyes of the population and citizen disaffection,” he concludes.
2030 World Cup Executive
On the PAM's path to the dominant position in the Legislature, a requirement to receive the sovereign's task of negotiating a coalition cabinet, predictably with the same current partners, an unexpected signing took place just two months ago. Barring surprises, the Minister of Budgets, a technocrat considered a trusted man of the Royal Palace and powerful president of the Moroccan Football Federation, Fouzi Lekjaa, is emerging as the new prime minister in the 2030 World Cup Executive, co-organized by Morocco, Portugal and Spain, as Moroccan press analysts agree in predicting.
Lekjaa was appointed by the king three years ago as president of the national committee for the Football World Cup. The international successes achieved by Morocco in this sport in recent years – with the summit of the semi-finals in the 2022 World Cup in Qatar – are behind the popularity achieved by this senior State official.
Another option to preside over the Executive that political analysts raise with less emphasis is that of the Minister of Urban Planning and Housing and mayor of Marrakech, Fátima el Mansouri, a prominent leader of the PAM. She would thus become the first head of Government in the history of Morocco and the second in the Maghreb countries after Najla Boudem, who held that position in Tunisia between 2021 and 2023. Mansouri has assured that her party is open to dialogue “without red lines” with all political forces.
“Ups and downs” in the relationship with Spain
In a press conference, Mansouri highlighted this Thursday that Morocco's relationship with Spain "is historic and necessary" and bilateral relations "must be of a high level, although sometimes they have ups and downs." “We are optimistic and we are going to find solutions,” he said in statements quoted by the Efe agency, “without giving up our positions regarding the human rights of Moroccan minors [in Ceuta] because they are our responsibility.”
The Royal Palace will, however, retain a high share of power according to the executive monarchy model that prevails in the Maghreb country. The sovereign of the Alawite dynasty reserves the direct appointment of the ministers of Foreign Affairs, Interior, Defense and Islamic Affairs and has the power to give the final approval to the entire Cabinet. The management of an investment program of 20,000 million euros in sports facilities and infrastructure will be the central objective of the World Cup Government, in response to the demands launched a year ago by the Generation Z movement, under the motto: “Fewer stadiums and more hospitals and universities.”
After an outbreak of claim of Moroccan sovereignty over the autonomous Spanish cities of North Africa by some candidates, the Ceuta crisis has not surfaced in the final speeches of a campaign marked by economic promises. The raising of the minimum wage to 5,000 dirhams (460 euros) per month from the current 3,400 (315 euros) and the creation of one million net jobs before 2030, to reduce the unemployment rate to less than double digits (13% currently; 37% for the youngest), have been offers shared in the programs of the government coalition parties.
