Datafolha research shows Lula with 47% and Flávio Bolsonaro with 45% in possible 2nd round

Datafolha research released this Thursday (24) shows that Lula (PT) has 47% of voting intentions against 45% for Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in a possible 2nd round dispute for the Presidency of the Republic.

In the previous survey, from a week ago, Lula had 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro, 44%, in a technical tie. The survey was commissioned by Globo and the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo.

Datafolha also presented scenarios of 2nd round disputes between Lula and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), Romeu Zema (NOVO), Renan Santos (Missão) and Augusto Cury (Avante).

See highlights of the research:

Among voters aligned neither with PT nor Bolsonarism, 39% would vote for Flávio Bolsonaro, and 34% for Lula;

In the portion that chooses Cury in the 1st round, 35% would migrate to Flávio in the 2nd round, and 33% would opt for Lula, with 30% going for a blank or null vote;

Among Caiado voters, 50% would choose the PL candidate, and 33% would vote for the current president;

In Renan Santos' electorate, 54% prefer Flávio in the 2nd round, 14% would opt for Lula, and 33% would vote blank or null in this dispute;

The margins of error for this electorate are higher (10, 11 and 13 points, respectively) due to the smaller universe of respondents.

See below the numbers of the five 2nd round simulations.

Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro

Lula (PT): 47% (was 46%)

Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 45% (was 44%)

Blank/null/none: 7% (was 8%)

Undecided: 1% (was 1%)

Datafolha, 2nd round: Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro — Photo: Arte/g1

Lula x Ronaldo Caiado

Lula (PT): 46% (was 46%)

Ronaldo Caiado (PSD): 44% (was 42%)

Blank/null/none: 9% (was 10%)

Undecided: 1% (was 2%)

Datafolha, 2nd round: Lula x Caiado — Photo: Arte/g1

Lula x Romeo Zema

Lula (PT): 48% (was 49%)

Romeu Zema (New): 39% (was 39%)

Blank/null/none: 11% (was 11%)

Undecided: 1% (was 2%)

Datafolha, 2nd round: Lula x Zema — Photo: Arte/g1

Lula x Renan Santos

Lula (PT): 48% (was 47%)

Renan Santos (Mission): 39% (was 38%)

Blank/null/none: 12% (was 13%)

Undecided: 2% (was 2%)

Datafolha, 2nd round: Lula x Renan Santos — Photo: Arte/g1

Lula x Augusto Cury

Lula (PT): 46% (was 44%)

Augusto Cury (Avante): 43% (was 43%)

Blank/null/none: 9% (was 10%)

Undecided: 1% (was 1%)

Datafolha, 2nd round: Lula x Cury — Photo: Arte/g1

Datafolha interviewed 2,002 people aged 16 or over between the 22nd and 23rd of September. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus, and the confidence level is 95%. The TSE registration number is BR-00304/2026.

Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro — Photo: Montagem/g1