
2nd round simulation indicates technical tie between Bolsonaro (48%) and Lula (47%)
AI-generated summary
Research commissioned by Rede Amazônica and carried out by Quaest between September 20 and 23, 2026 in the state of Amapá, with 804 voters aged 16 or over. Pablo Marçal's (PRTB) candidacy was rejected by the TSE, being replaced by Leonardo Avalanche.
Candidates for the Presidency of the Republic. — Photo: Reproduction
Quaest survey released this Friday (24) shows how the dispute for the Presidency of the Republic is going in the 1st round among voters in Amapá. The survey was commissioned by Rede Amazônica.
See below the results of the stimulated survey, in which Quaest shows the list of candidates to the voters interviewed.
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Pablo Marçal's (PRTB) candidacy for president was rejected by the TSE. Leonardo Avalanche, from the same party, replaced him in the dispute.
The current survey includes the name of Leonardo Avalanche, and, when compared with the survey carried out in August, uses the stimulated scenario of voting intentions for president without Marçal and without Avalanche.
Lula (PT): 42% (was 36% on August 24)
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 35% (was 33%)
Writer Augusto Cury (Avante): 6% (was 2%)
Ronaldo Caiado (PSD): 3% (was 2%)
Renan Santos (Mission): 2% (was 3%)
Clariana Barão (DC): 1%
Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO): 1%
Veterinarian Wilson Grassi (Democrat): 1%
Edmilson Costa (PCB): 0%
Hertz Dias (PSTU): 0%
Leonardo Avalanche (PRTB): 0%
Romeu Zema (New): 0%
Samara Martins (Popular Unit): 0%
Undecided: 5%
Blank/null/will not vote: 4%
2nd shift simulation
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 48%
Lula (PT): 47%
Undecided: 1%
Blank/null/will not vote: 4%
For 79% of voters interviewed in the survey, the choice of candidate is definitive. Another 21% say they can still change their vote until the elections on October 4th.
Quaest interviewed 804 people aged 16 or over, between September 20th and 23rd, 2026. The margin of error is 3 percentage points, plus or minus, and the confidence level is 95%. The TSE registration number is BR-04806/2026.
Approval and evaluation of the Lula government
Government approval
Disapprove: 53%
Approves: 43%
Don't know/didn't answer: 4%
VIDEOS with news from Amapá:
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula will compete in a second technical round in Amapá, with a margin within the margin of error.
Likely · Within weeks
Augusto Cury (Avante) will continue to grow in voting intentions in Amapá in the coming weeks.
Possible · Within weeks

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