Quaest survey in Rondônia shows Flávio Bolsonaro with 53% and Lula with 19% in the presidential race
Survey commissioned by Rede Amazônica interviewed 804 people between September 20th and 23rd; margin of error of 3 percentage points
Quick Look
- Quaest survey released this Thursday (24) shows Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) with 53% of voting intentions in the 1st round of the Presidency in Rondônia, followed by Lula (PT) with 19%.
- Augusto Cury (Avante) has 4%, Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) 3% and Renan Santos (Missão) 2%.
- For 85% of voters, the choice is final.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The Quaest research was commissioned by Rede Amazônica and registered with the TSE under numbers RO-08556/2026 and BR-06511/2026. Heard 804 people aged 16 or over between September 20th and 23rd, 2026. The margin of error is 3 percentage points and the confidence level is 95%.
Quaest in RO: Flávio Bolsonaro, 53%; Lula, 19%; Augusto Cury, 4%; Ronaldo Caiado, 3%; Renan Santos, 2% — Photo: Reproduction/personal collection
Quaest survey released this Thursday (24) shows how the dispute for the Presidency of the Republic is going in the 1st round among voters in Rondônia. The survey was commissioned by Rede Amazônica.
See below the results of the stimulated survey, in which Quaest shows the list of candidates to the voters interviewed.
Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 53% (was 45%)
Lula (PT): 19% (was 25%)
Writer Augusto Cury (Avante): 4% (was 1%)
Ronaldo Caiado (PSD): 3% (was 3%)
Renan Santos (Mission): 2% (was 3%)
Samara Martins (UP): 1% (was 0%)
Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO): 0% (was 0%)
Clariana Barão (DC): 0% (was 1%)
Romeu Zema (New): 0% (was 2%)
Edmilson Costa (PCB): 0% (was 0%)
Hertz Dias (PSTU): 0% (was 0%)
Leonardo Avalanche (PRTB): 0% (was not in the previous survey*)
Veterinarian Wilson Grassi (Democrat): 0% (was 1%)
Blank/null/will not vote: 6% (was 7%)
Undecided: 12% (was 12%)
*Leonardo Avalanche returned to be the PRTB candidate after the Electoral Court barred Pablo Marçal, who is ineligible.
For 85% of voters interviewed in the survey, the choice of candidate is definitive. Another 15% say they can still change their vote until the elections on October 4th.
Quaest interviewed 804 people aged 16 and over between the 20th and 23rd of September. The margin of error is 3 percentage points, plus or minus, and the confidence level is 95%. The survey was registered with the TSE under numbers RO-08556/2026 and BR-06511/2026.
Approval and evaluation of the Lula government
Government approval
Disapprove: 63% (was 56%)
Approves: 30% (was 35%)
Don't know/didn't answer: 7% (was 9%)
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Flávio Bolsonaro will maintain leadership in voting intentions in Rondônia until the 2026 elections
Likely · Within months
Lula will need a specific strategy to regain support in Rondônia
Possible · Within months
Open Questions
- How do voting intentions in Rondônia compare to national averages?
- What is the impact of Pablo Marçal's ineligibility on PRTB's candidacy?
- Why was there a drop in the approval of the Lula government in Rondônia?







