Quaest survey shows technical tie between ACM Neto and Jerônimo Rodrigues in the dispute for the Government of Bahia

The former mayor of Salvador ACM Neto (União Brasil), with 42% of voting intentions, and governor Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT), with 40%, remain technically tied in the race for the Government of Bahia, according to a Quaest survey released this Thursday (24).

Candidate Maria Bona (PCO) scored 1%. Ronaldo Mansur (PSOL), Ariel Capistrano (DC), Aroldo Felix (UP) did not score.

Blank, invalid votes and people who said they will not vote total 8%, and another 9% of voters said they were undecided.

This is the second Quaest survey carried out after the official start of the campaign and points to a fluctuation, within the margin of error, in the difference between the two main candidates. In the previous survey, released on August 27, ACM Neto had 39% of voting intentions, compared to 37% for Jerônimo Rodrigues.

The survey, commissioned by TV Bahia and registered with the Electoral Court under number BA-01850/2026, interviewed 900 voters aged 16 or over in Bahia from Sunday (20) until Wednesday (23). The survey's margin of error is three percentage points, plus or minus, and the confidence level is 95%.

In a possible second round, the technical tie persists. ACM Neto scored 45% of voting intentions, against 43% for Jerônimo. Another 7% said they were undecided and 5% were blank and null.

In the previous survey, the former mayor of Salvador appeared with 44% and the PT member had 41% in a second round simulation.

In the dispute for the Senate, former governor Rui Costa (PT) leads with 23% of voting intentions, considering the combination of total votes, and senator Jaques Wagner (PT) has 17%.

Next come candidates from the opposition camp: former minister João Roma (PL), with 11%, and senator Angelo Coronel (Republicans), with 9%.

Delliana Ricelli (PSOL) scored 2%. Carlos Sodré (Mobiliza), Marcelo Carvalho (Rede) and Marcelo Santtana (DC) each had 1%. Gregorio Gould (UP) and Marcelo Millet (PCO) did not score.

Another 19% of voters said they were undecided and 16% said they voted blank, null or indicated that they will not vote.

In the Quaest survey on August 27, Rui Costa had 23%, Jaques Wagner, 17%, João Roma, 7%, Angelo Coronel 5% and Delliana, 2%. The other candidates had 1% each and Gregorio Gould (UP) did not score. 22% were undecided, and 20% said they voted blank or null.

The succession to the Government of Bahia repeats the 2022 clash between Jerônimo and ACM Neto. This time, however, the dispute has new ingredients, such as a pure-blood PT ticket, formed by the governor and two former governors, and a unified opposition in the state.

As in 2022, the PT adopted a strategy of nationalizing the dispute in search of a combined vote for Jerônimo and President Lula, with the aim of expanding its hegemony in the state.

ACM Neto, who adopted a strategy of neutrality in relation to the national election and did not declare a vote in 2022, now signals support for Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), but without campaigning for the ally.

In recent weeks, investigations into Banco Master and former banker Daniel Vorcaro have entered the state's electoral campaign, consolidating a new battleground in the dispute between the governor and the former mayor.