
Survey released on the eve of the 1st round indicates that Podemos candidate has an advantage over Hana Ghassan (MDB), who has 40%
AI-generated summary
Quaest research was released on the eve of the 1st round of elections for the government of Pará, showing the dispute between candidates Dr Daniel (Podemos) and Hana Ghassan (MDB).
Dr Daniel on the left; and Hana Ghassan, right. — Photo: Reproduction
Quaest research released this Saturday (3), the eve of the 1st round, shows how the dispute for the government of Pará is going. Candidate Dr Daniel (Podemos) leads voting intentions, based on valid votes.
Valid votes
Dr Daniel (Podemos): 57%
Hana Ghassan (MDB): 40%
Araceli Lemos (PSOL): 2%
Ruth Reis (Democrat): 1%
Gal Milk (UP): 0%
Well Macedo (PSTU): 0%
What are valid votes?
This is the way in which the TSE publishes the official results of the elections. These are the votes cast for candidates. This calculation leaves out blank votes and invalid votes. To win in the 1st round, a candidate needs 50% of the valid votes plus one vote.
How does Quaest calculate valid votes?
Quaest takes into account voting intentions from the survey and the turnout profile to estimate valid votes. It is the likely voter model, which considers voters with a greater propensity to vote.
The survey was commissioned by TV Liberal and interviewed 1,800 voters aged 16 or over, between the 2nd and 3rd of October. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus. The confidence level is 95%. The survey was registered with the Electoral Court under number TSE: PA-04580/2026.
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Total votes
See now the result with the total votes, including blank votes, invalid votes and undecided voters.
Dr Daniel (Podemos): 44% (it was 41% on September 26)
Hana Ghassan (MDB): 31% (was 32%)
Araceli Lemos (PSOL): 2% (was 2%)
Ruth Reis (Democrat): 1% (was 0%)
Well Macedo (PSTU): 0% (was 1%)
Gal Leite (UP): 0% (was 1%)
Undecided: 18% (was 17%)
White/null/will not vote: 4% (was 6%)
Spontaneous search
Now look at the spontaneous survey, in which voters respond without having access to a list of candidates.
These results help to measure the degree of vote consolidation. The greater the number of undecided voters the day before, the less consolidated the vote is and the greater the possibility of changes in relation to Sunday's result.
Dr Daniel (Podemos): 29% (it was 23% on September 26)
Hana Ghassan (MDB): 21% (was 19%)
Araceli Lemos (PSOL): 1% (was 0%)
Gal Leite (UP): 0% (was 0%)
Well Macedo (PSTU): 0% (was 0%)
Ruth Reis (Democrat): 0% (was 0%)
Others: 2% (was 2%)
Undecided: 45% (was 54% on September 26)
White/null/will not vote: 2% (was 2%)
Vote decision
Among voters who declare their vote for a candidate, 83% say the decision is final. Another 16% say they can still change their mind.
Choice is final: 83% (was 72%)
Could change: 16% (was 28%)
Don't know/didn't answer: 1% (was 0%)
Interest in the election
Very interested: 42% (was 31% on September 26)
Not very interested: 37% (was 43%)
Not interested at all: 19% (was 24%)
Don't know/didn't answer: 2% (was 2%)
2nd round scenarios
Quaest also simulated a 2nd round scenario. See the numbers:
Dr Daniel (Podemos): 48% (it was 47% on September 26)
Hana Ghassan (MDB): 37% (was 36% in August)
Blank/null/none: 5% (was 8%)
Undecided: 10% (was 9%)
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Dr Daniel will win the 1st round of elections for governor of Pará
Very likely · Within days
Hana Ghassan and Dr Daniel will compete in a second round
Possible · Within weeks

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The Quaest survey, commissioned by Globo and registered with the TSE, explains that to win in the 1st round a candidate needs 50% of the valid votes plus one vote, excluding blanks and null votes, and uses the likely voter model with voting intentions and turnout profile of 2,652 voters interviewed between October 2nd and 3rd, with a margin of error of two percentage points and 95% confidence.