Quaest research released this Friday (25) shows how the dispute for the government of Maranhão is going in the final stretch of the 2026 elections. The survey was commissioned by TV Mirante.
See below the results of the stimulated survey, in which Quaest shows the list of candidates to the voters interviewed.
Eduardo Braide (PSD): 46% (it was 44% on August 24);
Orleans Brandão (MDB): 27% (it was 25% on August 24);
Felipe Camarão (PT): 10% (it was 6% on August 24);
Roberto Rocha (PRTB): 3% (it was 3% on August 24);
André Luis (MISSION): 1% (it was 1% on August 24);
Reginaldo Lima (PCB): 1% (it was 0% on August 24);
Dimas Cassimiro (PCO): 0% (it was 0% on August 24);
White/null/will not vote: 3% (it was 4% on August 24);
Blank/null/will not vote: 3% (it was 4% on August 24)
Undecided: 9% (was 17% on August 24);
For 70% of voters interviewed in the survey, the choice of candidate is definitive. Another 28% say they can still change their vote until the elections on October 4th. 2% of voters do not know or did not respond.
Quaest interviewed 900 people aged 16 and over between the 21st and 24th of September. The margin of error is 3 percentage points, plus or minus, and the confidence level is 95%. The TSE registration numbers are MA-07074/2026 and BR-04892/2026.
Spontaneous survey numbers
Quaest also shows the results of the spontaneous poll, in which the names of the candidates are not shown to voters.
Eduardo Braide (PSD): 29% (it was 21% on August 24);
Orleans Brandão (MDB): 15% (it was 13% on August 24);
Felipe Camarão (PT): 3% (it was 1% on August 24);
Roberto Rocha (PRTB): 1% (was 0% on August 24);
André Luis (MISSION): 1% (it was 0% on August 24);
Reginaldo Lima (PCB): 0% (it was 0% on August 24);
Dimas Cassimiro (PCO): 0% (it was 0% on August 24);
Saulo Arcangeli (PSTU): 0% (it was 0% on August 24);
Blank/null/will not vote: 1% (it was 1% on August 24);
Undecided: 50% (it was 64% on August 24).
Eduardo Braide (PSD) and Orleans Brandão (MDB) lead the Quaest survey numbers. — Photo: Reproduction/Social Networks
2nd round scenarios
The research brings five 2nd round simulations. In all scenarios in which it is tested, candidate Eduardo Braide (PSD) leads. The data is below.
SCENARIO 01:
Eduardo Braide (PSD): 55%
Orleans Brandão (MDB): 33%
Blank/null/none: 3%
Undecided: 9%
SCENARIO 02:
Eduardo Braide (PSD): 66%
Felipe Camarão (PT): 20%
Blank/null/none: 6%
Undecided: 8%
SCENARIO 03:
Eduardo Braide (PSD): 68%
Roberto Rocha (PRTB): 13%
Blank/null/none: 9%
Undecided: 10%
SCENARIO 04 (without Eduardo Braide):
Orleans Brandão (MDB): 47%
Felipe Camarão (PT): 27%
Blank/null/none: 15%
Undecided: 11%
SCENARIO 05 (without Eduardo Braide):
Orleans Brandão (MDB): 53%
Roberto Rocha (PRTB): 18%
Blank/null/none: 18%
Undecided: 11%
Main problem of the state
Quaest asked voters what the state's main problem is. See the most cited themes.
Health: 26%
Infrastructure: 18%
Others: 16%
No problem/no problem: 1%
Don't know/didn't answer: 13%
Candidate rejection rate
Quaest also consulted voters about each of the candidates: if they know them and would vote, if they don't know them or if they know them and wouldn't vote. The most rejected candidates (highest rates of "know and wouldn't vote") are Orleans Brandão (MDB) and Roberto Rocha (PRTB), both with 38% rejection.
Orleans Brandão (MDB):
Knows and would vote: 44% (it was 37% on August 24);
Don't know: 18% (it was 25% on August 24);
Knows and would not vote: 38% (it was 38% on August 24).
Roberto Rocha (PRTB)
Knows and would vote: 13% (it was 13% on August 24);
Don't know: 49% (it was 49% on August 24);
Knows and would not vote: 38% (it was 38% on August 24).
Felipe Camarão (PT)
Knows and would vote: 26% (it was 19% on August 24);
Don't know: 40% (it was 50% on August 24);
Knows and would not vote: 34% (it was 30% on August 24).
Eduardo Braide (PSD):
Do you know and would vote: 58% (it was 57% on August 24);
Don't know: 21% (it was 25% on August 24);
Knows and would not vote: 21% (it was 18% on August 24).
Government Approval and Assessment
The research also shows the evaluation of Carlos Brandão's government (MDB) and the approval and disapproval ratings. See below:
Government approval
Approves: 55% (it was 54% on August 24);
Disapprove: 28% (was 30% on August 24);
Don't know/didn't answer: 17% (was 16% on August 24).
Government assessment
Regular: 37% (it was 39% on August 24);
Positive: 36% (was 35% on August 24);
Negative: 19% (it was 19% on August 24);
Don't know/didn't answer: 8% (7% on August 24).
Does Carlos Brandão (MDB) deserve to be re-elected or does he deserve to elect a successor?
Yes, it deserves it: 49% (it was 46% on August 24);
No: 41% (it was 42% on August 24);
Don't know/didn't answer: 10% (there were 12 on August 24).
