Political scientist warns of existential crisis for established parties

The political scientist Reiner Becker sees the established parties increasingly in an existential crisis in view of the results of the three recent state elections in Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin. What this means cannot yet be said in its entirety, but in addition to polarization, there is also increasing “destructiveness” and fragmentation in society, Becker told the German Press Agency. These developments would also reach school classrooms.

During the day, the Hesse Advisory Network, which is part of the Democracy Center and whose experts advise on racist and right-wing extremist incidents in schools, municipalities and in administration, wants to present its annual report.

The process of social fragmentation has been going on since the 1980s and is also reflected in the loss of importance of churches, unions and other social institutions, said Becker. At the same time, citizens' trust in politics has been measurably declining for years.

The crises of the past few years - from the financial crisis to the corona pandemic to the current foreign policy situation - are impacting an increasingly highly individualized society, which is causing worries and “fear of decline”. In such situations, racist slogans, the search for scapegoats and easy answers also began.

The established parties would have a hard time in a world in which “certain models of success that created prosperity no longer work. “Keyword: the automotive industry, the keyword: export,” said Becker, “all of that is changing in a short period of time.” There are no easy answers to this, and at the same time people want to feel that their concerns are taken seriously and addressed seriously.

It is also difficult that the current challenges cannot be solved in a legislative period of just a few years. The successes of a pension reform, for example, are not immediately noticeable in the wallets of individual citizens in the coming year, “but rather one thinks of the next generation”. Dealing with climate change also involves long periods of time that extend beyond a legislative period and complex relationships that affect different interests. Therefore, one-to-one implementation of the results of commissions should not be expected. This creates impatience, which in turn gives rise to dissatisfaction that is concentrated in one party, said Becker, referring to the AfD.

The political scientist assumes that similar developments to those in eastern German states could arise in state elections in Hesse and other federal states in the next three to four years. It is becoming increasingly difficult to find stable majorities against the AfD there.

The exciting question now is how the Union will position itself on this, i.e. “firewall yes or no,” said Becker. The term already shows a sense of being driven. It's no longer a matter of suspecting a fire, "but of perhaps already seeing it," says Becker. The question of how to deal with the AfD actually distracts from how to deal with the challenges of the time. It is important to “represent a different policy and not think that the world will be better with different staff.”