Forecast lowered again: Alstom investors flee - shares collapse

The French train manufacturer Alstom has again lowered its annual outlook due to problems with major projects in Germany. The Siemens rival cited delays in the certification and delivery of Coradia Max regional trains as the main reason for the forecast reduction. The difficulties led to a cash outflow of 1.25 billion euros in the first half of the year and pushed the adjusted operating return on sales (EBIT margin) into the red. The company's shares fell by up to 30 percent on the Paris stock exchange and were still trading at a discount of 25 percent in the early afternoon.

The Coradia Max trains, which have been built since 2021 and ordered by several German federal states, should actually have driven production growth this year. However, technical problems and additional testing requirements extended the schedule, Alstom said. The problems caused additional work and missed deadlines on some projects. The train manufacturer therefore lowered its annual production target to around 4,000 wagons from the previous 4,400 to 4,500.

The adjusted EBIT margin was around minus 4 percent in the first half of the financial year, compared to plus 6.4 percent a year ago. For the year as a whole, the group now expects an adjusted operating margin of around 1 percent instead of the previous 6.5 percent. The free cash flow target was lowered to an outflow of 1.5 billion euros after previously promising an inflow of funds.

The group had already revised its targets downwards in April due to production problems. Shortly before, Martin Sion had taken over management from Henri Poupart-Lafarge. "Since my appointment as CEO in April 2026, I have called for thorough identification and systematic reporting of risks and opportunities at the project level," explained Sion. The renewed correction of the forecast is the consequence of this.

Including the recent price slide, the paper has lost around 54 percent of its value this year.