Putin's cardinal mistake and Germany's fear

Russian President Putin recently said a remarkable sentence in the midst of the usual talk about the war in Ukraine: Anyone can be wrong, but only an idiot insists on making a mistake. He thinks Kyiv and its supporters in the West are idiots. But with his remark, Putin also drew attention to himself and the grenade mistake that he has been sticking to for more than four years: his attack on Ukraine in the assumption that the “special operation” would succeed in a few days and that the West would come to terms with it, as it did with the occupation of Crimea.

But Ukraine, which has been hit with murderous attacks on its cities, is still defending itself and, although to a much lesser extent, is letting the Russians feel what it means to be bombed. Russia is paying a heavy toll on the front, but is hardly making any advances. The Russian economy is groaning under sanctions, the people are suffering from inflation and taxes to finance imperialist megalomania. With his war, Putin not only revived the “brain-dead” NATO, but also expanded it to include Sweden and Finland.

Trump also sticks to his cardinal error

But Putin is still not giving up on Ukraine, he is still betting that he will have the staying power in this war of attrition. There is no political force in Russia that could force him to change his war course. The people obediently follow their leader. It helps Putin a lot that China has his back, while Trump gives the Europeans and Ukraine the cold shoulder. The American president is also sticking to his wrong strategy.

Putin's main focus can therefore be on cutting off Ukraine from European political, financial and military support. The biggest helper is Germany, and Chancellor Merz is confirming his ongoing willingness to do so with his visit to Ukraine this Sunday. Putin knows exactly what Merz formulated when NATO deservedly honored him with the Peace of Westphalia Prize: If Germany falters, then Europe falters, if Europe falters, then Ukraine falters.

Demonstrations against conscription – unimaginable in Moscow

And it is with Germany that Putin believes he has the easiest time. Unlike him, for the Germans war is not a political tool, but rather something to be avoided at almost all costs. The traumas of the two world wars and the Nazi regime are deep and continue to influence public opinion and security policy decisions to this day. The Germans show only a moderate willingness to defend their own country and its allies with weapons. The demonstrations against conscription - unimaginable in Moscow - are music to Putin's ears. In addition, there is a special relationship with Russia in which feelings of guilt are mixed with romantic glorification. Everything is overshadowed by “German anxiety”, which includes the fear of everything that begins with the word “atom”.

Putin knows how to stoke German fears of a nuclear war by repeatedly talking about nuclear strikes against European capitals. He himself was now rattling his nuclear saber again when he threatened to use his nuclear weapons in the event of a Western attack on Kaliningrad. Of course, NATO has no plans to invade Königsberg. The air force maneuvers in the Baltics are only intended to deter Putin from starting “special operations” there in order to distract the Russians from the high price of the attack on Ukraine with another war. But even in the West, some people are still caught up in Moscow's propaganda that NATO is to blame for everything.

Putin expects pure cotton candy from the AfD

In order to promote parties in Germany that demand an end to support for Ukraine, Putin is also intensifying his “hybrid” war. This is also intended to increase Germans' fear of war and undermine their already limited spirit of resistance. The Chancellor did well to assure Putin that his attempts to intimidate him were hitting granite (even if the rock near Merz, see Taurus, is not always as hard as the rock in the Fichtelgebirge). But even for some in the SPD you only meet plaster. And Putin expects pure cotton candy from the AfD, the Left Party and the BSW.

There are many indications that the Kremlin finally wants to bring Ukraine to its knees next winter. He must not succeed in this, even in the fifth year of the war. The security and freedom of Europe and thus of Germany is defended in Ukraine, which is why the Ukrainian defensive struggle must be given maximum support. That would be the end of it if the “last patron of democracy,” as Söder described the black-red coalition, were to fail. If Putin's useful idiots came to power in Berlin after that, it would have disastrous consequences for Germany, for Ukraine, and for all of Europe.