Cathay Investment Trust held a press conference on 2026 Q4 Outlook and New Investment Trends today.
Entering the fourth quarter of 2026, the global market is facing pressure from oil prices, inflation and interest rate hikes on the one hand. On the other hand, the fundamentals of the AI industry still show strong growth momentum. Cathay Investment Bank said that the global investment environment in the fourth quarter will present a situation of "general headwinds and bright spots in the industry". The central banks of the United States, Europe and Japan are still under pressure to raise interest rates, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield may remain high. However, AI capital expenditures continue to expand, and corporate profit growth still provides fundamental support for technology stocks.
Lin Qichao, chief economist of Cathay Asset Management and Cathay World Bank, said that the war has pushed up oil prices and rekindled concerns about global inflation. The probability that the central banks of the United States, Europe and Japan will continue to raise interest rates in the fourth quarter is still high. Currently, bond market interest rates have gradually reflected expectations of about 3% of interest rate hikes in the next year. The U.S. 10-year government bond yield is expected to fluctuate at a high level of 5% by the end of the year, and the U.S. dollar index is around 100. Oil prices will be an important driving factor in the future. Looking forward to the whole year, Lin Qichao estimates that Taiwan's exports will challenge US$900 billion, and the economic growth rate for 2026 will be 12%.
Cathay Philadelphia Semiconductor (00830) manager Li Hanlin analyzed U.S. stocks and pointed out that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, one of the major U.S. stock indexes, has an EPS growth rate of 143.7% and 45.8% in 2026 and 2027 respectively, which is higher than Nasdaq 100 Index and S&P 500 Index; at the same time, the valuation of the main constituent stocks of the Feiban Index has been significantly lower than when ChatGPT was launched at the end of November 2022, mainly due to the substantial increase in expected EPS growth rate, showing that the industry still has profit growth support.
Optimistic about the long-term trend of AI and semiconductors, 00830 will vote on the split proposal from October 30 to November 16. If the split proposal is successfully passed, it will further lower the investment threshold by lowering the price per unit of beneficial interest, allowing more investors to have the opportunity to participate in the long-term development of the U.S. semiconductor industry.
Yu Rijie, associate director of the Product Strategy Development Department of Cathay Pacific Investment Bank, said that long-term AI development is still an important investment theme for Taiwan stocks. As the scale and application scope of AI models continue to expand, from GPUs, advanced processes, advanced packaging, high-speed transmission, to cloud data centers and terminal applications, the required capital expenditures and technical thresholds are simultaneously increasing. The trend of "big ones are ever bigger" in the semiconductor and technology sectors has become more obvious. Industry leaders with technological leadership, economies of scale and complete customer bases will have greater opportunities to take on the huge business opportunities brought by the AI wave.
Regarding ETF allocation recommendations for the fourth quarter of 2026, Cathay Investment Bank said that although the high interest rate environment may amplify market fluctuations, the global AI competition has entered a new stage of "comparing technology, capital, and scale." Technology leaders with competitive advantages deserve continued attention.
