Reports of Russian attack on NATO – experts warn of hybrid warfare and psychological impact

There have been reports that Russia is planning an attack on NATO, but opinions differ on whether it is an immediate threat. The warnings could also play into the Kremlin's hands by creating anxiety.

Last week, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Russia plans to attack countries that support Ukraine with kamikaze drones or missiles. French President Emmanuel Macron also spoke about Russia escalating the hybrid war.

On Sunday, The Guardian published an interview with three European intelligence chiefs, who were concerned that Russia is escalating against NATO.

Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech intelligence service BIS, told The Guardian that it could be drones, or a small-scale invasion of NATO territory.

Previously, the Wall Street Journal, among others, has reported that Russia is planning an attack on NATO.

According to the WSJ, CIA director John Ratcliffe warned of such an attack during his visit to Moscow a few weeks ago.

- You can expect anything from the Kremlin, as we saw with the attack on Ukraine in 2022, so we must be prepared for such a scenario, says Tomas Jermalavičius, research director at the International Center for Defense and Security, RKK, in Tallinn.

- Russia is like a serial killer - they have the motive, the means and they are always looking for an opportunity.

The Kremlin has already accused NATO of indirectly waging war against Russia, as NATO countries supported Ukraine's defense battle. However, it was Russia that unilaterally launched the illegal war of invasion in 2022, after waging a low-intensity war in eastern Ukraine for eight years.

Over the weekend, Ukraine carried out its biggest attack yet on Moscow, using hundreds of drones and cruise missiles. Russia's "military special operation" is not going according to Russian President Vladimir Putin's plans.

According to Jermalavičius, Putin has several incentives to use military force against NATO.

- Since Russia's terror campaign in Europe has not yielded results - Europe's support for Ukraine has not collapsed - but Russia has not encountered a strong backlash either, he can try to raise the stakes to split NATO's solidarity, says Jermalavičius.

- Tours of missile attacks and counterattacks from both sides, such as Iran's and Israel's strange war in 2025, would be enough for Russia to achieve a political effect at home while stretching the defense alliance.

It could also be about a limited military attack, for example a so-called fait accompli scenario where Russia occupies an area and sees how NATO reacts. If NATO did not respond, it would mean that the credibility of the defense alliance was spent.

- Russia could use a fait accompli scenario as pawns, for example by forcing Europe to abandon Ukraine in exchange for restoring the status quo, says Jermalavičius.

Another incentive for Putin is that even a limited military response by NATO would give Russia a springboard for a new wave of mobilization. It would be very unpopular, but if Putin could claim that NATO is attacking Russia, it could rally the population behind him.

- For it to succeed, Russia must avoid a major conflict with NATO, says Jermalavičius.

The Baltic countries have often been singled out as a likely target for Russia's aggression. However, according to Jermalavičius, it is wrong to think that, for example, Narva would be an easy target for Russia.

- I think the Kremlin is trying to increase the threat of an attack on the Baltic countries with the aim of creating anxiety, as well as getting the countries to withhold military support to Ukraine in order to save on their own arsenals, says Jermalavičius.

Normunds Mežviets, director general of the Latvian security service VDD, also told The Guardian that he saw no signs of an imminent attack. It looks like the Kremlin is planning an escalation, but according to Mežviets, it is unclear if the plans are concrete or if it is just part of Russia's strategy to spread anxiety in Europe.