A week and a half before the attack on October 7, 2023, the president of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Mohamed Bin Zayed (MBZ) phoned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to alert him that Hamas leader Yehie Sinwar was preparing a major action against Israel. This is what journalists Shlomi Eldar and Ruth Yuval reveal, in the information published this Tuesday on the front page of the Israeli newspaper Haaretz which, as expected, has generated many reactions less than a month after the third anniversary of the terrorist attack and 49 days before the elections.
Netanyahu has flatly denied this, pointing out that "if there was any relevant information, it was transmitted through Intelligence channels between the two countries." The opposition assures that it is further proof of their enormous responsibility in not avoiding the 7-0. All of this confirms the need to create a state commission to thoroughly investigate the causes, circumstances and responsibilities of the greatest failure in the history of Israel. Something that the Government has refused, alleging lack of confidence in the president of the Supreme Court, Isaac Amit.
After long hours of silence, the Arab country reacted without confirming or denying the information. "The Government of the United Arab Emirates does not comment on media stories or speculation relating to conversations between government leaders," Foreign Affairs reported, noting that since the establishment of relations in 2020 "the government entities of the United Arab Emirates and Israel have maintained open and direct communication channels."
The warning given by MBZ would be added to others given to Netanyahu in a generic way at an internal and external level (for example from the then head of Egyptian Intelligence, Abbas Kamel, who warned him of the possibility of a "large-scale operation, something exceptional") and fuels the battle of narratives between the veteran leader, accused for example of ignoring the threat from Hamas, encouraging Qatari aid to the Gaza Strip under Islamist control since 2007 and not ending Sinwar with the aim of ensuring calm, and the then head of the army (Herzi Halevi) and the security service General Shabak (Ronen Bar). The last two took responsibility for the biggest security failure in Israel's history on a day in which Hamas killed 1,200 people and kidnapped another 251 in the south of the country.
According to what Eldar told Israeli media, Sinwar asked a Palestinian (former Al Fatah) in the Gaza Strip to send the message to Netanyahu demanding an economic agreement on the Palestinian enclave. "Tell the Israelis that, if there is no progress, I am preparing a huge surprise for them. Tell them to expect a Zilzal (earthquake)," he announced. The Palestinian communicated the warning to an MBZ advisor, of Gazan origin.
The so-called "earthquake" had only one meaning: war. But since they were not sure, the emir and his advisor again asked the Palestinian to meet with Sinwar to confirm their threat. The Hamas leader repeated the warning: "Give them the message that I am preparing a real surprise for them. A terrifying operation. Something out of the ordinary. Please convey to the Israelis exactly what I am saying, word for word."
On September 15, 2023, Shabak received this notice and its director, Ronen Bar, passed it on to Netanyahu. Several meetings were held in the security agencies regarding this matter. One possibility considered was that Hamas was going to do something against Israeli academic Elizabeth Tsurkov, who had been kidnapped by pro-Iran militias in Iraq. Bar, however, took the warning seriously and advised taking offensive and defensive measures.
Several days passed before MBZ decided to communicate this directly to Netanyahu at the end of September. As on other occasions and to guarantee maximum confidentiality, a representative from its embassy in Tel Aviv went to the Israeli Prime Minister's headquarters with a special phone so they could speak through an Emirati application.
"The emir explained that, in his opinion, Sinwar was preparing for a significant attack," says an MBZ advisor, who was present at the telephone conversation. According to him, "he told Netanyahu that Israel must be prepared" for a possible attack while advising him to try "to find an economic solution for the Gaza Strip and calm the situation in the West Bank to avoid an escalation."
MBZ feared the attack would lead to bloodshed, shake the region and hit the Abraham Accords in which they normalized relations in 2020.
Eldar reveals that in the conversation Netanyahu reacted relatively calmly. According to the Israeli's assessment, Hamas is preparing something in the West Bank where attacks were frequent at that time. In the 45-minute talk, he reassured him by pointing out that Israel is prepared for any scenario.
The Arab leader was surprised that Netanyahu did not convey the warning to the army chiefs, Shabak and Mossad. Haaretz notes that MBZ shared with CIA Director William Burns the feeling he had tried to convey to Netanyahu: "Something was about to explode there."
According to Alder, three high-level foreign sources were informed of the content of the conversation between MBZ and Netanyahu. An exclusive that is the result, say the authors, of "extensive research based on dozens of sources, both in Israel and abroad, including top-level officials, as well as recordings, documents and internal correspondence." The reason for the investigation, they add, is his book Hostages: 843 days of abandonment that comes out this week.
Reactions
"Complete lie! Prime Minister Netanyahu did not speak with the UAE president at the mentioned time and did not receive any warning from him," responded the Israeli premier's office while his advisor and spokesperson, Topaz Luk, told the public radio station: "It is false and petty information (...) It is a new attempt to distort the truth ahead of the elections. What other fabrications will emerge before the elections?"
According to him, it was the security agencies that demanded an increase in the number of Gazan workers entering Israel, stating that "there is no risk."
"This morning's publication according to which Netanyahu was warned 10 days before the October 7 massacre about Sinwar's intentions is true," reacted former prime minister Naftali Bennett, who has excellent relations with MBZ. Bennett, who is running in the October 27 elections, accuses Netanyahu of "personal and direct responsibility for the failure that led to the death of thousands of Israelis on his guard. His ignorance of the warnings is criminal negligence."
"The Israeli population has the right to know what Netanyahu knew, when he knew it, why he did not inform the security establishment and why he did not act to protect the citizens of Israel," the four main opposition leaders reacted.
