
AI-generated summary
The report is based on information from the Spanish newspaper "El Mundo", which refers to sources close to the Lithuanian Ministry of Defense and a CIA report. It refers to the earlier Operation Spider's Web carried out by the Ukrainian SBU against Russian military airfields. The number of drone-related incidents in Europe has increased in recent months, including the discovery of debris and explosives in Germany. France is preparing for the presidential elections in 2027, and its services have detected foreign information interference operations.
According to "El Mundo", the drones would be hidden in containers transported by commercial vessels and then launched from the sea towards targets in the territory of one of the three countries.
The entire operation is reminiscent of Operation Spider's Web. The operation was carried out in the middle of last year by the Ukrainian SBU. The target was Russian military airfields with strategic aviation and consisted of coordinated drone attacks carried out from (civilian) truck trailers located on Russian territory. As a result, several dozen enemy machines were destroyed or damaged.
The newspaper's sources, close to the Lithuanian Ministry of Defense, indicate that Russia could use Gerber-type unmanned aerial vehicles in a potential operation. These are machines that are used both as decoys and attack drones.
Gerbera is expected to weigh up to 18 kilograms, reach a speed of approximately 160 km/h and have a range of up to 600 kilometers. Its warhead, weighing 4-5 kilograms, would probably not be enough to destroy a large object, but it could cause a fire or temporarily disrupt the operation of a port or airport.
Warnings for European capitals
According to "El Mundo", a detailed CIA report on the possible attack scenario was to be sent to foreign ministries in Europe. Lithuania was to receive information after CIA Director John Ratcliffe's visit to Moscow, which, according to the source, took place on August 25.
French President Emmanuel Macron convened a meeting of the Defense Council on September 16. Two days later, he met at the Elysée Palace with the leaders of all political forces. After the talks, he announced strengthening the protection of critical infrastructure against cyberattacks and threats from drones, pointing to Russian "hybrid threats."
It is unclear why France, Spain and Italy would be the target of such an operation. Earlier, however, there were reports that Moscow intended to put pressure on European centers that actively support Ukraine.
"El Mundo" also points to the political dimension of possible incidents. Attacks could be used to create a sense of threat in Western European societies, especially during election campaigns.
In France, presidential elections are scheduled to take place in 2027. The local VIGINUM agency reported in June that it had detected four foreign information interference operations related to local government elections. The French authorities treat them as possible preparation for attempts to influence next year's presidential campaign.
Incidents in Germany
In Lower Saxony, near the Bundeswehr air base in Wunstorf, the remains of a drone and a substance considered by investigators to be possible explosives were found.
The federal prosecutor's office is investigating whether the case is related to an attempted sabotage at Leipzig/Halle airport in early August. The German authorities blamed Russia for the incident. A drone equipped with a detonator was then found near the Ukrainian transport plane.
Russia may be preparing for large military actions or provocations this year, said the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland, Radosław Sikorski, in New York. As he noted, Poland receives information on this matter from many sources.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
France, Spain and Italy will strengthen protection of critical infrastructure against drone attacks in the coming months
Very likely · Within months
The German prosecutor's investigation into the discovery of a drone and explosives near Wunstorf may lead to charges against people or groups linked to Russia
Possible · Within weeks
Russia may carry out provocative actions using drones in 2026
Possible · Within months

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