Scope confirms US credit rating with AA and stable outlook despite growing risks

Berlin. The European rating agency Scope has confirmed the creditworthiness of the USA with a good grade of “AA-” and a stable outlook. The world's largest economy continues to benefit from its enormous economic power and the role of the US dollar as a global reserve currency, Scope announced on Friday evening. However, this would be offset by a deterioration in public finances, increasing political polarization and medium-term risks to financial stability.

The USA no longer has the top rating of “AAA” from the three major US rating agencies. The Fitch agency downgraded the US credit rating by one notch from the top rating in 2023 and justified this with the expected deterioration in the budget situation and the repeated dispute over the debt ceiling. In 2025, Moody's also withdrew the "AAA" rating from the USA due to rising debts. S&P confirmed its “AA+” rating for the USA in June, Fitch in August,

Scope expects new US debt to rise from 6.8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 to 7.8 percent in the current year. By 2031, total US debt is expected to climb from 124 to 144 percent of economic output. The situation is made more difficult by sharply increased interest costs, which are restricting the government's financial flexibility.

The credit rating watchdogs also warned of the consequences of a political division in Washington. The recurring dispute over raising the national debt ceiling, which will probably be reached again at the beginning of 2027, shows weaknesses in budget management and causes regular unrest on the financial markets. Despite the increased political pressure, the US Federal Reserve's most recent monetary policy decisions demonstrate continued operational independence, it said.

According to Scope, the rating is supported by the resilience of the US economy. Scope forecasts robust growth of around 2.4 percent for 2026 and 2027. The labor market also remains strong with an unemployment rate of recently 4.1 percent. A decisive advantage of the USA remains the unrivaled depth and liquidity of the domestic capital market.

Although the dollar's share of global currency reserves has fallen slightly in the long term, the US currency continues to dominate international trade and cross-border financing. This gives the USA exceptional financial flexibility, which cushions the risks of high national debt.

Scope identified medium-term risks in the financial system as well as environmental and socio-political factors as additional challenges. Although the US banking sector is robust, there are weaknesses. These risks would be exacerbated by plans to relax banking regulations.

With a view to US President Donald Trump's second term in office, Scope also referred to the US's renewed withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and the dismantling of environmental regulations. The increasing concentration of power in the executive branch and the withdrawal of programs for social equality also contribute to a weakening of the institutional framework and social cohesion.