Not even a week has passed since the midterm elections in the United States and the old ritual of moving away from the loser is already underway. “Donald, if I have seen you, I don't remember.” And we also witness the no less ancient ritual of entrenchment by the defeated. Yesterday, the president of the United States named Stephen Miller, his toughest collaborator in the White House, the architect of mass deportations, as his new chief of staff. An unscrupulous political strategist to defend a presidency that will be harshly scrutinized by the House of Representatives and the Senate. A new time begins.
In France, the National Rally (former National Front) issues the slogan to distance itself from Donald Trump to avoid punishment in the very important presidential elections next spring, at a time when Marine Le Pen leads the polls. It is true that the French extreme right has never given itself body and soul to the MAGA movement. France is Gaullist, no French politician who aspires to the presidency of the Republic can appear as a servant of the United States. RN has been placed on alert: “Trump?, connais pas.”
In Italy, where politics is very theatrical, the coalition led by Giorgia Meloni has already started the transforming ritual: “We have never been Trumpists,” says the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Antonio Tajani, of Forza Italia. Matteo Salvini, servant of due padroni, Trump and Vladimir Putin, remains silent. “I'm just a Melonian,” said the interested party, who less than a year ago boasted to some journalists about speaking on the phone with the president of the United States more than once a week. Until a few months ago, Meloni wanted to be the great mediator between Washington and Brussels. He has not succeeded, because the Emperor does not believe in mediations.
Everything began to go wrong the day Trump demanded more bellicosity with Pope Leo XIV and more support in the Iran war. No Italian ruler, regardless of his party, can openly support an offensive against the Pope; No Italian prime minister can involve his country in a war in the Middle East, because the Republic's foreign policy has always been very prudent in that area of the world, in perfect accordance, for decades, with the vision of the Vatican.
And at this time there is an additional reason to be cautious: Italy is still very dependent on gas, it lost Russian gas with the war in Ukraine, and cannot take any risks now. You have to be very careful in the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean. You have to be very careful in Libya. Trump got angry with Meloni, belittled her, and today she walks away, spiteful.
And in Spain? “If I have seen you, I don't remember” is very Spanish, in coexistence with another motto that says: “What's done, chest.” I'm interested in staying away, but if it shows too much it can be detrimental. That is the position adopted these days by Santiago Abascal, president of Vox. Le Pen and Meloni will go to elections in spring, they have months ahead of them to take measures to the new situation. Abascal does not have that margin. The leader of Vox has recalled these days that Trump is still the president and that it is in Spain's interest to have the best possible relationship with the United States. Obviously, Vox voters are not going to dedicate these days to a symposium on international relations after Midterm.
Spain goes to the polls in three weeks and any sudden turn could be detrimental for Vox, at a time when this party is approaching 19% in the polls and has great chances of being part of the future government. They cannot send signals of laziness to their most passionate voters. And they cannot neglect their links with the new Latin American governments of the radical right, valuable links that need the approval of the Trump Administration.
Vox is a party that has bet heavily on international politics: close relationship with the MAGA movement, close relationship with the outgoing Israeli Government, Patriots for Europe platform, excellent relationship with Meloni despite not sharing the same parliamentary group in Brussels, and a Latin American agenda that is currently more powerful than that of the Popular Party. However, Abascal has avoided appearing photographed next to Javier Milei these weeks, in the two almost consecutive visits of the president of Argentina to Spain. Milei is today a toxic asset for the right.
The government of Paraguay also becomes another toxic factor for this Latin American trend after the bankruptcy of a private bank linked to the country's president, Santiago Peña, due to the collapse of its solvency index. 335 million dollars destined for the pension system were deposited in that bank. Today, 60% of the population of Paraguay has their savings at risk. Peña has been dismissed by the Senate of Paraguay. The scandal is huge.
The opinion of the Popular Party on the result of the midterm elections in the United States is not very precise at this time. As is well known, Alberto Núñez Feijóo does not like to talk about international politics.
Will Trump's disaster influence the Spanish electoral campaign? It may have more influence on the French presidential elections, scheduled for spring, and the Italian legislative elections, which should be held in autumn 2027, but could be brought forward. Changes in dynamics in international politics do not always have a quick translation into national situations. Unless... unless in the coming weeks, Donald Trump, humiliated by the heavy defeat, orders a high-intensity military attack against Iran and all hell breaks loose again in the Persian Gulf. Their first reaction is entrenchment. Falcon Miller will lead the presidential cabinet. One more reason for Abascal's caution.
Are we facing a change of cycle after the elections in Brazil and the United States, the main pillars of the American continent? We would have to be cautious about this. We are facing a change of dynamics. In Brazil, the myth Lula has defeated a father's son who faced the elections with a lot of money and powerful support. The parliamentary counterpowers of the United States have been activated and the president is preparing to entrench himself. This does not mean that the European radical right will immediately go into decline. They will adapt to the new dynamics. They will shape your language. They are already doing it.
