State pension triple lock faces speculation over social care funding

Speculation about the future of the triple lock arrangement for the state pension has resurfaced, with reports it could be scrapped to help fund a new plan for social care.

The triple lock guarantees that the state pension goes up each year in line with either inflation, wage increases or 2.5% - whichever is the highest.

Recent wage data indicates the new state pension will rise by £488 a year in April 2027 as a result of the arrangement.

However, concern over how much the triple lock is costing has triggered a debate over whether it is affordable.

The state pension is a payment made every four weeks by the government, to people who have reached the qualifying age and have paid enough National Insurance (NI) contributions.

Since 6 April 2026:

the new flat-rate state pension - for those who reached state pension age after April 2016 - is £241.30 a week, or £12,547.60 a year

the old basic state pension - for those who reached state pension age before April 2016 - is £184.90 a week, or £9,614.80 a year

Many people on the old basic state pension may also receive the additional state pension, external.

In general, you need 35 years of qualifying contributions to get a full state pension.

Some people may have gaps in their NI record if, for example, they have lived abroad or taken time off to care for children.

It is possible to make voluntary payments to boost your contribution history. Since April 2025, you have only been able to make payments for the previous six years.

Data suggested that the state pension will increase in April 2027, meaning:

the flat-rate state pension - for those who reached state pension age after April 2016 – will likely be £250.70 a week, or £13,036.40 a year, up £488 on now

the old basic state pension - for those who reached state pension age before April 2016 – will likely be £192.10 a week, or £9,989.20 a year, up £374.40 on now

The government will confirm the rise, possibly in October's Budget.

Under the triple lock system, the state pension increases each April in line with whichever of three measures is the highest:

inflation in the September of the previous year, using a measure called the Consumer Prices Index (CPI)

the average increase in total wages, including bonuses, across the UK for May to July of the previous year

or 2.5%

The rise in wages of 3.9% is likely to determine the April 2027 state pension increase.

The triple lock was introduced by the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government in 2010.

It was designed to ensure the value of the state pension wasn't overtaken by the increase in the cost of living or the incomes of working people.

The Labour government has previously said it would keep the triple lock until the end of the current Parliament.

But since that commitment, there has been intense debate over the cost of the triple lock and whether it is justified.

In July 2025, the government's official forecaster said the cost of the triple lock guarantee was set to be three times higher by the end of the decade than was originally anticipated when it began.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said the annual cost is set to reach £15.5bn by 2030.

It said the cost of the state pension has risen steadily over the past eight decades, and now equates to £138bn, or around half the total amount the government spent on benefits.

In July, the influential Institute for Fiscal Studies think-tank suggested that the triple lock should be scrapped as part of a wider pensions overhaul.

There is now speculation that the government is considering ending the triple lock after the next general election as a way to fund a new social care plan.

The increase is expected to save the Treasury about £10bn a year by 2030.

But charities have warned that it will disproportionately affect areas of the UK where life expectancy is lower, and those on lower incomes.

A government review is considering whether to delay the second phase, which would currently take the state pension age to 68 between 2044 and 2046.

Depending on their overall income, those above retirement age may also be entitled to pension credit, external in addition to the basic state pension.

Pension credit increased by 4.8% in April 2026.

If your income is above the stated limits, you may still be eligible for pension credit if you have a disability or care for someone.

Anyone who qualifies for pension credit may also be entitled to other financial support, including housing benefit, a reduction in council tax, help with heating costs and the warm home discount scheme.