Low storage levels and geopolitical uncertainties increase the price risk for gas. How much the gas bill could rise can already be quantified.
Berlin. The risk of higher gas bills is growing for households. Since the outbreak of war in Iran, gas prices on the international gas markets have risen noticeably. At the same time, according to the Federal Network Agency, the filling levels of gas storage facilities in Germany at the beginning of the heating season are significantly below those of comparable periods in previous years.
“Anyone who heats with gas must expect higher costs next winter,” said the head of the Federal Association of Consumer Organizations (VZBV), Ramona Pop, to the Handelsblatt. How much the gas bill could rise can already be quantified - and for some households the additional costs could become a financial problem.
The “noticeable” increase in world market prices after the outbreak of the Iran war increased the pressure on suppliers, said Pop. “Experience shows that sooner or later this will reach households.”
The housing industry has already warned of risks “for millions of tenant households” in the coming winter. What exactly is behind it? What are the risks? An overview.
Who heats with gas in Germany?
Although electrically operated heat pumps are becoming increasingly popular in this country, the majority of apartments are still heated with fossil fuels - especially gas. According to the latest building report from the German Energy Agency, the proportion of apartments heated with gas is 56.1 percent, followed by heating oil at 17.3 percent and district heating at 15.5 percent.
What can owners and tenants expect in the short term?
Since the Russian attack on Ukraine in 2022, heating with natural gas has become significantly more expensive. In the meantime the situation had relaxed. Due to the Iran war, wholesale prices for natural gas have risen again.
However, according to the Haus & Grund owners' association, the most recent wholesale price increases have not yet been fully felt by most households. Many energy suppliers procure gas over the long term and therefore only pass on higher procurement costs to their customers with a delay, according to the explanation.
The credit agency Creditreform warns of the financial consequences. “Expensive heating costs will particularly affect those who have to spend a large part of their income on living costs such as rent, food and energy,” said Patrik-Ludwig Hantzsch, head of Creditreform economic research, to the Handelsblatt. “For them, an additional additional payment can trigger payment problems.”
What significance do gas storage levels have for private households?
According to the Federal Network Agency, the filling level of the gas storage facilities was 57.37 percent on September 26th, “significantly lower than in the comparable periods of previous years”. The gas supply is still considered stable. “Sufficient gas is available on the global market and there are sufficient import opportunities,” it says.
In addition, in the event of a gas shortage, private households must be given priority in the event of a gas shortage, according to the current legal situation. The housing industry is still worried. “The legal protection against a supply interruption does not protect people from higher heating costs,” said Axel Gedaschko, President of the umbrella association of the socially oriented housing industry (GdW), to the Handelsblatt.
He points out that low levels could also impact gas prices. The lower the level, the more important it is that the interaction between imports, storage and networks remains sufficiently efficient even during a longer cold phase, says Gedaschko.
How high could the price increases be?
An analysis by the comparison portal Verivox provides a clue. Accordingly, existing customers must expect price increases of between ten and 20 percent within the next year if the current high wholesale price level continues.
According to Verivox, the average gas price for an annual consumption of 20,000 kilowatt hours (kWh) is currently 12.52 cents per kWh. The heating costs amounted to 2504 euros.
In its last gas price analysis for August, the Federal Association of the Energy and Water Industry (BDEW) based its price on an average of 12.45 cents per kWh for a single-family home. It was 11.71 cents in an apartment building with six apartments and a consumption of 13,333 kWh each.
If prices were to rise by an average of 15 percent, the annual gas costs in a single-family home would rise from around 2,490 euros to around 2,864 euros, warns Haus & Grund. That would correspond to an additional burden of 374 euros. For an apartment in a community of owners, the costs would increase by around 234 euros to around 1,796 euros.
What other factors have an impact?
The Future Climate Social Foundation points out that the price would probably have risen even more if the gas storage levy had not been abolished since 2026. This was introduced by the federal government in the wake of the last energy crisis in 2022 to finance the filling of gas storage facilities.
In 2027, the fact that the national CO2 price for oil and gas will not rise will also have a dampening effect. The price, which has been levied in Germany since 2021 on the basis of the Fuel Emissions Trading Act (BEHG), is intended to gradually make heating with fossil fuels more expensive.
Alexander Steinfeldt, energy expert at the non-profit consultancy CO2Online, recently said that in the long term gas will be one of the most expensive forms of heating. “We have been tracking how heating costs are developing in Germany for two decades,” said CO2Online managing director Tanja Loitz. “The trend is now clear: the era of cheap fossil fuels has been over since the energy crisis four years ago.”
By 2045, heating costs for gas and oil heating could more than double. According to CO2Online, the reasons for this are rising CO2 costs, higher network fees and the so-called organic staircase. This is a step-by-step model for adding climate-friendly fuels to gas and oil heating systems.
Are there any savings options?
CO2Online sees savings opportunities. The heating index shows that many households can already significantly reduce their heating costs today. On average, you can save around 465 euros per year in an apartment, and even 1,000 euros in a single-family home. This can be achieved through behavioral changes such as lower hot water consumption or heating optimization, insulation measures or a switch to renewable heating systems. Verivox recommends comparing tariffs from gas providers.
Creditreform sees the low filling levels as a “warning signal”, also for retailers and service providers. The higher heating price weakens consumers' willingness to spend "and creates further problems for our domestic economy," said Hantzsch.
Consumer advocate Pop called on the federal government to provide households with small and medium incomes with “targeted relief in terms of energy costs”. “At the same time, Germany must further reduce its dependence on fossil energy to become less vulnerable to international price shocks,” she said.
