The highest compensation from the social security fund is currently SEK 27,200 a month before tax. Add to that the fact that the unemployed have no job tax deductions, which means that their tax percentage is higher. More and more unemployed are therefore referred to income from short-term unemployment insurance via trade unions or from restructuring organizations to which many companies are affiliated.
A-kassan's allowances have eroded over time. In 2021, 24 percent of full-time civil servants could receive 80 percent of their previous salary from the general social security fund. This year, the percentage is 17 percent, according to TCO calculations based on Statistics Sweden salary statistics. Among all full-time workers, the proportion has decreased from 42 to 29 percent during the same period.
The figures describe what percentage of those who work would receive 80 percent of their salary if they became unemployed. They therefore do not show what percentage of today's unemployed actually receive that level of compensation.
- Today, this is something different from the conversion insurance that the unemployment insurance fund was supposed to be, says TCO chairman Therese Svanström.
In order for eight out of ten full-time workers to be able to receive 80 percent of their previous salary, the income ceiling needs to be raised to around SEK 52,000, according to TCO. The highest compensation would then increase to SEK 41,600 a month.
TCO has roughly calculated that the reform would increase the state's expenditure by around SEK 2â2.3 billion a year. In 2026, the state is expected to pay out approximately SEK 23 billion in unemployment benefits.
TCO's calculation is based on today's unemployment and periods of unemployment. It does not take into account whether a higher compensation would change people's behavior. This makes the cost uncertain, according to Jonas Cederlöf, PhD in economics and researcher at the Institute for Labor Market and Education Policy Evaluation, IFAU.
- There is a mechanical cost that can be calculated based on how many are unemployed and how long they are unemployed. But then there are behavioral effects that in themselves create additional costs. If the compensation is increased, more people can register as unemployed and unemployment periods are extended. That must also be taken into account.
TCO describes the calculation as a static estimate and rejects the assumption that a higher compensation would increase unemployment. Jonas Cederlöf says, on the other hand, that the research shows quite clearly that higher remuneration tends to extend the time without work.
- If the compensation rate is increased, we know quite clearly from the research that the time in unemployment is generally extended.
He himself has researched what happens when those who have been dismissed receive longer notice periods and severance pay. The results show that higher financial compensation can cause people to delay looking for new work.
At the same time, there are arguments for more generous unemployment insurance. The A-kassan protects household consumption when someone loses their job and acts as an automatic stabilizer in recessions. A higher compensation can also give the unemployed the opportunity to look for a job that better corresponds to education and experience.
- If a highly educated person has to take the first best job, it can be a waste of competence and the investment that has been made in education, says Jonas Cederlöf.
From the autumn of 2025, the compensation will be reduced after 100 compensation days. The compensation level is initially 80 percent, then drops to 70 percent and after 200 days to 65 percent.
- One hundred days is a very short period. A recruitment process in itself can take more than three months, says Therese Svanström.
Jonas Cederlöf does not want to assess TCO's proposal to raise the ceiling. On the other hand, he believes that there are reasons to index the unemployment insurance fund. Today, politicians have to make special decisions about raising the ceiling. When this does not happen, the insurance is eroded in line with rising wages and prices.
- Many other social insurances and pensions are indexed. It is strange that the social insurance fund is not, by tradition, when it is supposed to function as a transition insurance.
According to him, an indexation would also make it clearer to the wage earners what protection they actually have.
- Many probably think they will get 80 percent if they become unemployed. Then they discover that they hit the ceiling and maybe receive 50 percent or even less of their previous salary, says Jonas Cederlöf.
