Tehran rejects dialogue with Trump, the Pentagon confirms the shortage of US ammunition
Quick Look
- The secretary of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, rejected any possibility of dialogue with the United States after Trump's declarations on the opening to negotiations.
- Meanwhile, a Pentagon report confirms the shortage of ammunition linked to the war in the Middle East, estimating a cost of 33.4 billion dollars for Operation Epic Fury, of which 22.3 billion is for ammunition.
- Tehran reiterates its conditions to end the conflict, while the Middle East remains in fibrillation over the Yemeni developments and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Tensions between Iran and the United States have persisted for months, with Tehran holding firm to its conditions for dialogue: an end to aggression, compensation for damages, lifting of the Hormuz blockade and sanctions, and the release of frozen assets. The war in the Middle East has involved regional actors such as Hezbollah, Houthis and US forces, impacting energy supplies across the Strait of Hormuz. China tried to mediate under the radar, while the Pentagon monitored the operational costs of military operations.
Tehran freezes Trump. The head of Iran's highest security body has rejected any possibility of dialogue with the United States after the tycoon said he was "open" to dialogue. "No talks until Iran's conditions are met. Period!" thundered Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.
A tile for the Commander-in-Chief denied even at home and by none other than the Pentagon. The Defense Department has in fact put in black and white in a report that the shortage of ammunition linked to the war in the Middle East, denied on several occasions by the US administration, exists. The Pentagon Inspector General's report estimates that between February 28 and June 30, Operation Epic Fury cost approximately $33.4 billion. Of this, as much as 22.3 were spent on ammunition, causing "strategic stockpile shortages" and revealing "bottlenecks within supply industries." In addition to damaging hundreds of buildings and structures at US bases in the Middle Eastern region and the US air fleet, which reported four F-15s destroyed, one F-35 and seven KC-135 tanker aircraft damaged as well as 30 MQ-9 Reaper attack drones shattered.
For its part, Tehran continues to reiterate the same conditions to end the war: the stop to all aggression (even against regional allies such as Hezbollah), compensation for war damages, the lifting of the blockade on Hormuz, in addition to the sanctions and the unfreezing of its assets frozen abroad. Requests unchanged in months of diplomatic stalemate, in which China also tries to mediate covertly. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will be in Beijing on Wednesday to see his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi. The meeting comes shortly before Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to the United States for a summit with Trump next week. A summit in whose agenda the war in the Middle East will have a prominent place but above all the interruptions of energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, the entire Middle East is in excitement over the Yemeni developments. Closing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would have "catastrophic" consequences, Qatar has warned. Even if the Houthis continue to reassure that 'navigation remains safe', the fighting does not abate, with at least 13 new Saudi raids on Taiz and the Houthi rebels raising the alarm for the first time in Islam's holiest place, Mecca.
Riyadh's strongman, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, flew to Cairo to speak with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi. Together the two leaders underlined their "shared commitment to ensuring the freedom and safety of maritime navigation in Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea". Israel also moved in the shadows, according to Israeli media, giving intelligence assistance to Riyadh through the American CentCom. The objective is the same as that of Washington which would have denied direct support to Riyadh: to support the Saudis, but without getting directly involved in another military front. It is no coincidence that last week the IDF chief of staff, General Eyal Zamir, met in Germany with the commanders of the armies of several Arab countries. War with Iran and escalation with the Houthis are on the table.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
China will attempt to broker a meeting between Iranian and US representatives during Xi Jinping's visit to the United States.
Likely · Within days
The United States will face domestic and allied pressure to resolve the ammunition shortage revealed by the Pentagon report.
Very likely · Within weeks
Tensions in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will increase if the Houthis continue their military operations near Mecca.
Possible · Within weeks
Open Questions
- What are the chances that China will be able to broker a dialogue between Iran and the United States?
- How will the ammunition shortage affect future U.S. military operations in the region?
- What concrete steps will Saudi Arabia and Egypt take to ensure the security of the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb?
- Will the Houthis continue to threaten sacred targets like Mecca?
