UAE Decision to Exit OPEC and OPEC+ Could Trigger Oil Price War, Expert Says

The United Arab Emirates’ decision to exit OPEC and OPEC+ was expected amid rising oil prices driven by the Middle East conflict, as well as increasing production in other countries, and could trigger a "price war" in the oil market, Kazakh oil industry expert Olzhas Baidildinov told TASS.

"This is the beginning of a price war. I think that by the end of the year, when the situation in the Middle East stabilizes, prices will return to the $60-$70 per barrel range. Clearly, this is a price war, and it will last for quite a long period," he said.

According to him, the UAE was dissatisfied with having to restrain oil production growth as part of OPEC and OPEC+ while other countries outside the agreements were increasing output. The UAE has reserves to expand production and relatively low production costs, the expert added. "It was obvious that at some point their patience would run out, and they would say: why should we sacrifice our production and our market share while others increase output and prices rise," Baidildinov noted.

He recalled that the UAE had plans to increase production to 5 mln barrels per day by 2027. "Currently, they produce 3.4-3.5 mln. That additional increase, at current prices, amounts to roughly $150 mln per day or $55 bln per year. Naturally, this is a significant sum for any economy, and the UAE does not want to lose it," he said.

He also believes that Kazakhstan, which is part of the OPEC+ deal, "could not physically comply with the agreement," as the bulk of its production comes from large fields such as Tengiz, Karachaganak, and Kashagan, which are developed by international consortia that "have never joined any agreements." "They naturally produce more, given the favorable price environment. The Gulf monarchies have long been dissatisfied with Kazakhstan. This is no secret — the media have reported on it, and they have said so themselves. Kazakhstan did not fulfill these obligations," the source said.

According to Baidildinov, a potential "price war" scenario could also see countries that failed to comply with OPEC+ commitments eventually "come knocking on the doors of the Persian Gulf" and signal their willingness to cut production.

Earlier, the Emirati state news agency WAM reported that the UAE had decided to withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+ starting May 1, 2026. The UAE also stated that it remains committed to stabilizing the global fuel market. Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry said on April 29 that changes to the country’s participation format in the OPEC+ agreement are not currently on the agenda.