This summer, Ukraine is turning Russia's most important source of money into a strategic weak point: the oil business. It could do the same with Russian LNG supplies. 15 tankers keep exports going. They are moving within reach. But there is a problem: Europe.
In the summer of 2026, the Russian oil industry will become a key battleground in the war with Ukraine. Ukrainian drones have been attacking Russian tankers dozens of times in the Azov and Black Seas since the beginning of July. Hundreds of kilometers from the front, Ukraine is also targeting pumping stations, refineries and tank farms - in the Russian hinterland, but also in metropolises such as Moscow and St. Petersburg.
Ukraine has a plan: Kiev wants to turn Moscow's most important source of income into a strategic weak point. Russia should no longer earn a ruble from its oil reserves on the world market and should also not be able to sell the oil on the domestic market as gasoline, diesel or kerosene. The attacks are intended to trigger a financial and supply crisis. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says the Ukrainian army has begun implementing “long-range sanctions.”
However, the oil business is not Russia's only source of money for the war. The Kremlin also earns large amounts of money from gas exports. Far too often the money still comes from Europe - not for pipelines, but for LNG deliveries. Natural gas is mined in Russia, liquefied and shipped to Europe on tankers. At terminals on European coasts it is converted back into gas form and fed into the networks.
Although Western states have been sanctioning the Russian energy sector for a long time, LNG deliveries to the EU are increasing: in the first quarter, EU states imported more Russian liquefied gas than at any time since the start of the war. In June, 14 percent of European gas imports still came from Russia.
The data provider Kpler and the NGO Urgewald have found in an analysis that the largest Russian LNG hub, Yamal in the far north, sent 136 tankers to Europe in the first half of the year. That was 97 percent of all deliveries. The only other customer was China with four deliveries. The largest buyers were France, Spain and Belgium.
The Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) in Finland evaluates every month how much money Russia earns from oil and gas exports. The information is shameful: the Kremlin earned 60 million euros every day from the deliveries.
This should actually end next year. The EU would like to stop importing Russian liquid gas from 2027 if possible. The alternatives are LNG from the USA and Qatar. However, due to the Iran war, Qatari liquid gas is missing from the world market. It is therefore questionable whether this plan can be implemented.
Europe is not alone in its dependence. Japan and South Korea also support Ukraine. At the same time, they also import large quantities of Russian liquid gas. In July, in the EU's 21st sanctions package, they even received an exemption for their imports from the LNG hub on Sakhalin Island in the Far East: all LNG deliveries from there to Japan and South Korea are exempt from EU sanctions.
This annoys Ukraine. But the attacks on the Russian oil infrastructure show that it has the power to stop Russian LNG deliveries to Europe, Japan and South Korea: Ukraine also started attacking the Russian shadow oil fleet in the summer because it was not satisfied with the effect of the EU sanctions, Colonel Markus told ntv.de.
It is obvious: Ukraine can extend its “long-haul sanctions” to the Russian LNG infrastructure. On paper, Ukrainian attacks on LNG tankers would be more effective than on oil tankers. The Russian oil shadow fleet is around 800 ships in size. If Ukraine eliminates one, there are a number of alternatives available to continue oil exports.
LNG exports, on the other hand, are concentrated on a few ships. Almost two thirds of all Russian deliveries come from the Yamal Peninsula in the far north. The route leads through the Russian Arctic. Special tankers of the Arc7 ice class are required for transport. They are expensive and rare. The Yamal fleet therefore only consists of 15 ships. A few hits are enough and the export would be stopped.
However, an expert from the think tank CREA points out in the "Kyiv Independent": All ships have a Western owner. 11 of the 15 Arc7 tankers belong to the Greek shipping company Dynagas. It ships more than a third of Yamal's LNG, according to the NGO Urgewald. The owner is said to have made billions from the business since the beginning of the war. The Greek government has implemented an exemption from EU sanctions for the transports. She is afraid that the shipping company could go bankrupt without the Russian business.
The other ice tankers are also in Western hands: they belong to a British and a Japanese shipping company. If Ukraine attacks these tankers, there will be trouble at the next government summit.
Ukraine could avoid this problem if it did not attack the tankers, but rather the Russian LNG terminals themselves. The advantage, as with ships, would be that the list of possible targets is short. There are currently only five Russian LNG terminals in operation, writes the “Kyiv Independent”.
However, only two of these terminals are within range of Ukrainian drones. Vysotsk and Portovaya are located on the Baltic Sea near the Finnish border. Ukraine attacked an oil terminal in Vysotsk in July.
The other terminals are several thousand kilometers away. The main hub on the Yamal Peninsula and the neighboring Arctic 2 terminal on the Gydan Peninsula are 3,100 kilometers from Ukraine. In the furthest attack to date on an oil refinery in Omsk, Ukrainian drones traveled 2,500 kilometers.
However, Ukraine is making enormous progress in drone development. Therefore, according to the Kyiv Independent, it is not ruled out that these two terminals could soon come within reach. The Far East terminal Sakhalin, on the other hand, will remain out of reach for the time being at a distance of almost 7,500 kilometers.
But even if Ukraine were to be able to use drones to take out LNG tankers and LNG terminals, it is clear that this will only work if Kiev is prepared to make European governments angry. Or if the EU states actually forego Russian LNG deliveries. Then the Ukrainian “long-range sanctions” would only harm the Russian war chest, not European gas supplies.
