The Senate will not be a secondary but central battlefield in the November 29 elections. While in Congress, the different political options will compete separately - many forces to the left of the PSOE have grouped together in the so-called Broad Front, from which Podemos and the Catalan, Basque or Galician nationalists have been excluded - in the Senate two majority blocs are being formed, one from the right and the other from the left, facing each other.
Although the news was overshadowed by the agonizing and frustrated negotiation between the Frente Amplio and Podemos to present a single list to Congress, on Friday night, about to ring the bell, the PSOE and a series of left-wing forces (IU, Movimiento Sumar, Compromís, Más Madrid, Chunta Aragonesista, Batzarre and Més) formalized the presentation of a joint candidacy under the name Senate of Progress. It will be presented in 45 provinces (Catalonia and the Canary Islands are left out, except La Gomera) -, with the aim of reversing the absolute majority that the PP has enjoyed in the upper house during this legislature. The promoters of the initiative believe that the grouping of the left-wing vote can unseat the popular party from first place in many provinces.
The reaction has not been long in coming. The leader of Vox, Santiago Abascal, sent a “message of tranquility” to his voters this Saturday through social networks, ensuring that he will act “with high vision” and do “whatever is necessary” to prevent a future and hypothetical coalition government between the PP and Vox “depending on Sánchez and his henchmen.” "Sánchez is capable of anything to destroy Spain. But we are also capable of everything to save it," he emphasized.
What Abascal has announced, with this cryptic message, is that Vox is studying the possibility of not presenting a candidacy for the Senate in the provinces in which it has no possibility of winning a seat and requesting the vote for the PP list in these constituencies, with the aim of preventing the victory of the left. The general secretary of the party, Ignacio Garriga, has anticipated in San Lorenzo del Escorial (Madrid) that "difficult decisions" will have to be made, while a spokesperson for the party has limited itself to pointing out that "all options are open" and has referred to the decision adopted next week by the National Executive Committee (CEN), the highest decision-making body between assemblies.
It is no longer possible for the two right-wing forces to put together a coalition as the PSOE and the Frente Amplio have negotiated, since the deadline to present it was midnight this Friday. However, the deadline to present the lists is from October 21 to 26 and even those already presented can be withdrawn at the last minute. The options that Abascal has on the table are to present Vox candidates to the Senate under the acronym of the PP, which is considered unlikely, or not to present a list in provinces where the ultra party has no possibility of winning a seat in the upper house, which is the most likely.
This is a very risky decision for Vox, since asking for a vote for the PP in the upper house could accentuate the tendency towards a useful vote and cause a drag effect of the Congressional ballot in favor of the popular ones. Furthermore, in some constituencies, such as Ceuta, the ultras are openly opposed to the president of the city, Juan Jesús Vivas, of the PP, who has preferred to make an agreement with the PSOE, so it would be difficult to maintain this schizophrenia.
But if the pact does not materialize, Vox could be accused of handing control of the Senate to the PSOE and its partners. Although it is considered a 'second reading chamber', postponed by Congress, the PP has demonstrated in this legislature its ability to wear down the Government, with the creation of investigative commissions to give greater echo to its complaints: the summoning of senior officials at critical moments to set the agenda; or the boycott of international treaties, such as that of friendship with France, already in the middle of the pre-campaign. The application of article 155 of the Constitution also depends on the Senate, which allows the Government to withdraw powers from autonomous communities that fail to comply with their obligations, as happened with Catalonia after the pseudo-declaration of independence in October 2017.
The most important and immediate thing, however, is its competence to elect members of constitutional bodies, such as the Constitutional Court or the General Council of the Judiciary. One of the first tasks that the new senators will face will be the renewal of the Constitutional Court. The mandate of the four judges elected by the Senate – including its president, Cándido Conde-Pumpido – expired in December, so it is time to elect replacements. The deadline for the legislative assemblies of the autonomous communities to propose candidates ends on November 30 and from there the election process begins, which includes the appearance of the candidates before the appointments commission. The four outgoing magistrates are divided equally between conservatives and progressives, but if the PP and Vox could appoint four like-minded magistrates – for which they would need a three-fifths majority that the popular ones did not achieve in the previous legislature – they could turn around the current composition of the Constitutional Court, with a progressive majority.
In the 2023 general elections, Vox did not obtain any senators and lost the two it had, so the four they currently have are by autonomous designation. The more than 2.7 million votes that the Vox candidates for the Senate received in those elections ended up in the trash can. At that time, the loss of these votes had no practical effects for the right, since the PP achieved an absolute majority in the Senate. Now the situation could be different.
Abascal has always rejected calls from the PP not to appear in some provinces, interpreting them as an attempt to reabsorb voters who left their midst and politically engulf Vox. If he now admits to doing so, it will be a strategic change and a sign of the solidity of the alliance forged between Abascal and Núñez Feijóo ahead of the November 29 elections. An iron pact that in the early stages of the pre-campaign has been evident with a commitment to non-aggression between the two political forces, unlike what happened in 2023, and with the will to govern in coalition if they reach an absolute majority at the polls. However, the Senate pact goes further, because it is the first pre-electoral alliance between the right and the extreme right. If the agreement ends up being consummated and the PP renews its majority in the Senate on October 29 thanks to the support of Vox, Feijóo will be indebted to Abascal and will owe him part of his electoral success before they sit down to negotiate.
