UN Warns 45 Million in Developing Countries Face Food Shortages Due to Fertilizer Supply Disruptions via Strait of Hormuz
Quick Look
UN official Jorge Moreira da Silva warns that at least 45 million people in developing countries may face food shortages due to disruptions in fertilizer supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, urging the US and Iran to resolve the issue separately from broader conflict, as a third of global fertilizer trade passes through the strait.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The Strait of Hormuz is a vital maritime route for global trade, with a third of fertilizer trade and significant oil and LNG shipments passing through it. Recent US-Iran hostilities, including a memorandum of understanding in June and renewed strikes in July, have disrupted transit, raising concerns about humanitarian access.
TOKYO, September 26. /TASS/. At least 45 million people in developing countries may face food shortages because of disruptions in fertilizer supplies via the Strait of Hormuz, Jorge Moreira da Silva, Under-Secretary-General and Director of the UN Office for Project Services, said in an interview with the NHK television channel.
According to him, a humanitarian crisis can be avoided if at least five or seven ships carrying fertilizers pass through this strait per day.
"For developing countries, this will be a decisive factor, and they will either ensure food security or be forced to face a humanitarian crisis," da Silva, who previously headed the UN task force on humanitarian shipments via Hormuz, said.
According to the UN, a third of the global fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
"The war should not serve as a reason to stop the transit of humanitarian aid," da Silva added, urging Washington and Tehran to find a solution to the problem of fertilizer supplies as soon as possible, separately from a comprehensive settlement of the conflict.
The US and Israel launched a war against Iran on February 28. In June, Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding providing for an immediate cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including in Lebanon. However, on the night of July 8, the United States resumed large·scale strikes against Iran, accusing it of violating the terms of the agreements reached in relation to the Strait of Hormuz. About a quarter of the world’s oil trade and about 20% of liquefied natural gas trade are transported through it. Subsequently, the US administration effectively signaled a shift away from the use of large·scale military force against Iran and toward an attempt to economically strangle it through sanctions.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The US and Iran will engage in indirect negotiations to secure fertilizer transit through the Strait of Hormuz within the next month.
Likely · Within weeks
Food insecurity will worsen in at least three developing countries if fertilizer shipments do not resume at pre-conflict levels within six weeks.
Possible · Within months
Open Questions
- Which specific developing countries are most at risk of food shortages?
- What alternative routes exist for fertilizer shipments if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked?
- Have the US and Iran engaged in direct talks regarding fertilizer transit since the resumption of strikes?
- What sanctions are currently impeding fertilizer shipments to vulnerable nations?
