Intelligence chiefs warn of possible Russian attacks on NATO countries

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk drew attention last week when he warned that within months Russia could use drones and missiles against Poland or other Ukraine-supporting countries.

Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech intelligence service BIS, is also aware that the Russian military may make a small-scale invasion of Natomark shortly.

- It is possible. It could be a limited attack, provocation under a false flag or an extensive influence campaign, says Koudelka to the Guardian.

From the Kremlin, warnings of this kind have been dismissed as Russophobia, just as they did with American warnings about an invasion of Ukraine before February 24, 2022. Alarms from the Baltics, Poland and across the Atlantic were also not taken seriously in Western Europe, recalls Latvian intelligence chief Normunds Mezviets.

In something similar to reversed roles, Latvia is among those who are now downplaying the acute threat from the east. The Russian military apparatus is busy in Ukraine, some of the reasoning goes, and drumming up a threat anyway is exactly what Russia wants.

- We see no signs of an imminent attack, Mezviets tells the Guardian, although he admits that there are certainly signs of Russian plans against Europe.

- But it is still an open question whether these are direct and concrete plans or whether it is just part of their overall attempt to spread fear and uncertainty in Western society.

Estonian Foreign Minister Jonathan Vseviov has also wanted to balance the Russian threat picture. "Take a deep breath," he wrote on X last Saturday. "If there is reason to fear an attack, you can be sure we will make it clear. Until then: keep calm, carry on as usual and support Ukraine."

Beyond possible imperialist motives, a Russian attack to the West would aim to test the defense alliance's Article 5, which states that an armed attack on one member state is the same as an attack on all. Poland's Tusk claims that the Kremlin wants to show that the principle of reciprocity is mostly a theoretical creation.

While Russia persists in its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the country's representatives claim that it is interested in peace negotiations. Donald Trump has expressed several times that he believes in Vladimir Putin's good will in this regard, but as far as is known, the repeated trips to Russia by the envoy couple Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have not led to anything constructive.

- I have not seen any signs that Moscow is seriously considering starting real negotiations. My assessment is that they still believe they can achieve their strategic goals, so they are only engaging in negotiation theater, says Lieutenant General Thomas Nilsson, head of the Swedish Armed Forces' intelligence service Must, to the Guardian.

This week, the world will gather in New York for the UN's 81st General Assembly. Alongside the general debate itself, the sixth summit of the international Crimean platform launched by Volodymyr Zelenskyj in the year of the full-scale invasion will be held, among other things, and the Ukrainian president will meet Trump.

"There is diplomatic momentum," writes Zelensky on X. "There must be peace."