Figures of 150,000 Russian soldiers at Orichiv are disputed

150,000 Russian soldiers in 120 tactical units have massed in the direction of Orichiv in Zaporizhzhya, according to Ukrainian military data, the Kyiv Post reports. Johan Huovinen, a teacher at the Norwegian Defense Academy, does not doubt that Russia intends to try to make an advance, but is skeptical of the stated number.

- That sounds unlikely. It would be on the same scale as when the Russian forces invaded Ukraine in 2022, and given, among other things, all the vehicles it would require, it would have been captured on video and seen on satellite. In my world, it's more about 10,000 soldiers, roughly speaking, says Johan Huovinen.

Serhij Skibtjyk, spokesperson for Ukraine's 65th Mechanized Brigade, tells the Kyiv Post that the situation is difficult and is affecting their logistical planning, but that it is under control. He points out, however, that the Russian troops will consist of, among other things, the 58th Army and the 98th Airborne Forces.

- These are Russian elite units, "the best of the best". I still think Ukraine has a slight advantage here. The Russian spearhead does have high combat morale, but not the equipment it once had. Of course, Ukraine should still be worried about a potential Russian offensive in that direction, says Huovinen.

His analysis of the situation in the area is that it is most likely a matter of Russia wanting to reclaim occupied land. Earlier in the year, it has been noted several times that Ukraine has recaptured more territory than it lost, and it is in these areas in particular that Russia has had to step back.

- It is in the area where the three regions of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhya and Dnipropetrovsk meet that the Ukrainians have been able to push out the Russians. What we see are possible preparations for a Russian counter-offensive, because they are completely fortified without real success in that defense belt in Donetsk, says Johan Huovinen.

Beyond the obvious success in controlling more Ukrainian land, a Russian offensive could serve two other functions. On the one hand, Russia would have a better opportunity to establish a better defense point in Orichiv's existing infrastructure, and on the other hand it could raise morale and send encouraging signals to the home public.

Since Russia captured Huljajpole east of Orichiv before the turn of the year, there has been recurring speculation about continued advances to the west. The goal is to take full control of the Zaporizhzhya region - they currently have roughly 70 percent of the territory - which they claim with support in "referendums" of the same kind that were also carried out in Donetsk, Luhansk and Kherson.

According to the ISW think tank's latest daily report, very real Russian military is trying to advance in western Zaporizhzhya, but without success. Conversely, the Ukrainian military leadership was able to report on Thursday that it had succeeded in striking a pair of drone emplacements and power stations well behind the Russian front line.