Dr. works in the field of Political Sociology and Policy Studies at the Ethiopian Public Service University. Mukerrem Miftah and Middle East Studies Center (ORSAM) North and East African Studies Coordinator Dr. Kaan Devecioğlu answered AA correspondent's questions about the crisis in Ethiopia.
Miftah said that the current tension in the country cannot be evaluated independently of the long-standing political struggle between the TPLF and the administration of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
Reminding that TPLF has been one of the important actors of Ethiopian politics for 27 years, Miftah explained that the disagreements within the political coalition led by the organization, as well as the increasing social and political opposition in the country, caused TPLF to lose its weight in the central government in 2018.
Warning that civilians may pay the heaviest price if the conflicts expand, Miftah said, "If the conflicts are not taken under control, this will definitely have a regional dimension." he said.
Miftah drew attention to the structure of Ethiopia, which hosts many ethnic and religious groups, and evaluated that if the federal government is seriously weakened, different armed movements may gain power and separatist tendencies may increase.
Underlining that he does not expect such a scenario to happen, Miftah said, "If a large-scale war occurs, Ethiopia may turn into another Somalia. In fact, the consequences may be much more severe than those in Somalia." he said.
Calling on countries such as Türkiye, the USA, China and Russia, Miftah stated that these countries could play a role in directing the parties to renegotiation.
Miftah pointed out Türkiye's diplomatic role in reducing the tension between Ethiopia and Somalia and said that a similar initiative by Ankara could be considered to reduce the current tension.
Problems Pretoria can't solve
ORSAM North and East Africa Studies Coordinator Devecioğlu stated that the latest developments can no longer be considered only as political tension and said, "Today, we are talking about an escalation that has turned into an open military conflict rather than just a political tension." he said.
Devecioğlu said that the basis of the current tension is the failure of the Pretoria Peace Agreement signed in 2022 to completely eliminate the causes of the war.
Explaining that the agreement stopped the conflicts, but the disarmament of Tigray forces, the future of the disputed regions, especially Western Tigray, the return of the displaced, and the post-war political and administrative status of Tigray could not be resolved, Devecioğlu noted that new political disputes were added to these in 2026.
Devecioğlu pointed out that the alliance of 7 armed groups, including TPLF, with the aim of changing the federal government was an important break, and said, "The 7 groups no longer demand only the implementation of Pretoria. In their joint statement, they say that they aim to change the federal government." he said.
Pointing out that Fano in Amhara, Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) in Oromiya and TPLF are in the same political alliance, Devecioğlu explained that if these groups create a common military capacity, the federal government may face a multi-front security crisis.
Stating that Eritrea is one of the most critical actors in the regional dimension of the crisis, Devecioğlu said, "If Eritrea directly enters into war, the Tigray issue will no longer be Ethiopia's internal conflict and will turn into an interstate security crisis." he said.
Stating that expansion towards the Sudanese border may cause the crises in the two countries to come into contact with each other, Devecioğlu said that Ethiopia's focus on internal security may also reduce the political and military capacity it can allocate to the fight against Al-Shabaab in Somalia.
Emphasizing that the developments in Afar are also critical, Devecioğlu stated that approximately 92 percent of Ethiopia's foreign trade is carried out through the Djibouti Port, and noted that if this corridor is affected, the crisis may affect Djibouti, the Red Sea trade and the general security architecture of the Horn of Africa.
Stating that TPLF described its current operations as a "defense war" against the attacks of the federal forces, Devecioğlu stated that the European Union criticized the TPLF's moves as well as the recent UAV attacks carried out by the federal army.
