See what is #FACT or #FAKE in Lula's interview with Globo in the 2nd round of the 2026 elections

Lula gives an interview to JN — Photo: Manuella Mello/Globo

President Lula (PT), candidate for re-election, was interviewed this Thursday (15) by TV Globo.

Conducted by journalist Renata Lo Prete directly from Estúdios Globo, in Rio, and shown live right after Jornal Nacional, the conversation was part of the coverage of the second round of the 2026 Elections. After the screening, the interview was available in full on Globoplay and g1.

Candidate Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), who is also running in the second round of the presidential election, will be interviewed on Friday (16), also by Renata Lo Prete. The order of the interviews was defined by draw in a meeting with campaign representatives.

The Fato ou Fake team checked Lula's main statements. Read:

"It's important to remember that we presented a budget with a primary surplus, 0.1%, it's not much. But it's important to remember that I got it with a deficit of 2.8%."

Lula's statement about the 0.1% primary surplus is #FACT.

Lula's statement about a 2.8% deficit is #FAKE.

See why the first of them is #FACT:

— Photo: g1

At the end of August, the government sent a budget proposal for 2027 to the National Congress predicting an effective primary surplus (relevant for the purposes of the public debt trajectory) of R$18.6 billion. The amount represents a positive result of 0.13% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

According to the June Fiscal Monitoring report from the Independent Fiscal Institution (IFI), a body linked to the Federal Senate, an annual primary surplus of 2.1% of GDP would be necessary just to stabilize public debt, that is, for it to stop growing.

See why the second of them is #FAKE:

— Photo: g1

According to data available in the National Treasury result bulletin, in the historical series, Lula did not inherit, when starting his third term, a primary deficit of 2.8% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In fact, in 2022, the last year of Jair Bolsonaro's government, there was a surplus of 0.5% of GDP (R$46.4 billion).

This account shows the difference between income and expenses, without including interest expenses, according to Treasury figures.

In the first year of the current Lula government, in 2023, there was a deficit of R$228.5 billion, or 2.1% of GDP. The current economic team attributes the size of the deficit, in part, to expenses that would not have been paid under the Bolsonaro government. One of them is expenses with court orders that the current administration paid in 2023, in the amount of R$92.4 billion. These are appeals referring to definitive court sentences.

For 2026, the government estimates an effective primary deficit of R$52 billion, or 0.4% of GDP, according to data from the most recent Primary Revenue and Expenditure Assessment Report. The number turns into a surplus of R$10.8 billion, or a little less than 0.1% of GDP, considering allowances allowed to meet the fiscal target, such as court orders. This year's fiscal target is a surplus of 0.25% of GDP, with a tolerance of 0.25 percentage points of GDP more or less.

This check is ongoing.

The following participated in the check: Camila Silva, Danilo Perello, Gustavo Petró, Jorge Fofano, Mel Trench, Rafael Rosas and Roney Domingos.

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