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The election of an AfD politician as president of the state parliament in Saxony-Anhalt has triggered internal conflicts in the Union and criticism of Chancellor Merz. Lauterbach and Lang see this as a danger of the AfD's normalization and warn of a split in the CDU, while Altmaier does not equate the Left with the AfD.
Lauterbach believes this reticence is wrong. "Everyone knows that it was the Union people. And we act as if it was an open matter," he says. The SPD politician describes the possibility of targeted action by other parties brought into play by Merz as absurd. When asked whether the Chancellor was spreading a conspiracy theory, Lauterbach replied: “It is a conspiracy theory.”
Lang also criticizes the Chancellor's handling of the vote. Merz must recognize the problems within his own ranks and take responsibility instead of offering other explanations. “This is a complete refusal of responsibility,” says the Green politician. She sees the events as a mixture of the Chancellor's loss of authority, opportunism and the relativization of a right-wing extremist party.
Despite all the criticism of Merz, Lauterbach distinguishes between the responsibility of the Chancellor and that of the CDU state association. “I think it is wrong to hold the federal CDU responsible for what is happening in Saxony-Anhalt,” says the SPD politician. However, he is critical of Merz's handling of the situation: "It definitely didn't help him to express himself like that, to put it that way." In the current situation, it would be appropriate to take a clear moral position. However, Lauterbach has no doubts about Merz's fundamental rejection of the AfD: "But I buy that he has a clear negative attitude when it comes to the AfD, which also comes from within."
Lang warns against normalizing the AfD
Lang sees the election of the state parliament president as a process whose significance extends far beyond Saxony-Anhalt. It's not just about filling a parliamentary office, but about the danger that the AfD's participation in positions of state power will increasingly be perceived as normal.
She cites the election of an AfD prime minister, substantive cooperation at the state level and finally cooperation at the federal level as possible next steps. “And every step seems less dangerous, seems less scandalous, because the one that came before it has already been taken,” says Lang.
Lang sees the Union as having a special responsibility. She recognizes different currents within the party: one part rejects cooperation with the AfD out of democratic convictions, while another is preparing a rapprochement. Merz must resolve this conflict openly. Lang formulates her diagnosis clearly: “The rift runs right through the Union.”
Lauterbach also shares the concern for the cohesion of the CDU. In his view, if the party were to give up its demarcation from the AfD, there would be a risk of a split. Conservative members who refused to cooperate on moral grounds could leave the party. “So if the Union wobbles on the issue of the firewall, then downfall will come,” he says. When asked, he explained that he meant a split in the party.
Dispute over the left in Berlin
The discussion is also about the possibility of a red-red-green coalition in Berlin. Altmaier refers to accusations of anti-Semitism against parts of the Berlin left as well as their attitude towards Russia and NATO. In his view, there are important reasons to view such a coalition critically.
When asked whether he considers the Left to be just as dangerous as the AfD, the CDU politician expressly distances himself from any equation. “I think the AfD is more dangerous,” says Altmaier. At the same time, he defends his party's incompatibility decision and its decision not to form a coalition with certain parties.
Lauterbach contradicts the idea that the Left can be put on the same level as the AfD. According to his account, the Berlin Left is not classified as an anti-constitutional party. However, he admits that he would personally prefer a coalition with the participation of the CDU because of the allegations of anti-Semitism. However, this decision must be made on site.
Lang also believes that an equation is wrong. "The Left, despite all the problems it has, is essentially a democratic party. The AfD is a secure right-wing extremist party," she says. At the same time, she emphasizes that the allegations of anti-Semitism must be taken seriously and that binding measures must be agreed upon in possible coalition negotiations.
Lauterbach believes a break in the coalition is conceivable
The focus then turns to the economic and social policy challenges facing the federal government. The focus is on dwindling trust in the established parties and the question of how necessary reforms can be implemented without additional social tensions.
Altmaier sees this as a fundamental crisis in the political system. “I now believe we have a combined state and party crisis,” says the former Federal Economics Minister. While one of the major parties used to benefit from the losses of another, the centrist democratic parties are now stagnating or losing support. The AfD in particular benefits from this. At the same time, citizens' trust in the ability of the established parties to solve their problems is dwindling.
From Lauterbach's perspective, the social reforms show how difficult it could be for the coalition to regain this trust. Savings in health, care and pensions are necessary, but must be distributed fairly. People with higher incomes should contribute more to stabilization.
“We are making cuts, but nothing will be fairer,” says Lauterbach, describing a possible scenario. If the SPD were to be pressured into adopting such a policy, it could endanger the coalition. When asked whether a break was conceivable, he replied: “It is definitely conceivable if you overdraw.” However, he does not see an imminent break.
Lang doubts Merz's political future
Lang is particularly critical of the Federal Chancellor's administration. She expected at least technical experience from a government made up of the Union and the SPD. However, she currently sees neither convincing government action nor any special ability to win people over to his policies in Merz.
Lang also accuses the Chancellor of defining his policies too much through criticism of social groups. “And why should people trust a chancellor who gives them the feeling every day that he looks down on them and that he distrusts them?” she asks.
However, the Green politician is not calling for her resignation. Merz was democratically elected and has the responsibility to regain lost trust. She doubts whether he will succeed. “I think what we all know is that Friedrich Merz will not be the Union’s next candidate for chancellor,” says Lang.
Altmaier avoids making a corresponding forecast. He recalls that political moods have changed significantly in the past, even in the short term. At the same time, he admits that the Union and the SPD had raised expectations with their election promises that they could hardly fulfill. This contributed to the disappointment of many voters.
It is now all the more important to prevent a premature end to the black-red coalition. “The most important thing is that the grand coalition does not fail,” says the former CDU minister. In his view, a failure would also be a failure of the Federal Republic's post-war political model. To prevent things from getting to that point, both government parties would have to find workable compromises more quickly.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The grand coalition will not fail because both sides have an interest in maintaining it.
Likely · Within months
Friedrich Merz will not be the Union's next candidate for chancellor.
Likely · Within months
There will be further internal conflicts in the Union over the AfD issue.
Very likely · Within weeks
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