US elections 2026: the key to control of Congress and the future of the Trump presidency

For the White House, however, the most important question is very simple: will Donald Trump still have a Republican Congress behind him after January 3, 2027?

Today, Republicans control both houses, but especially in the House of Representatives, their advantage is minimal. This means that just a few seats may be enough to change the majority. Reuters estimates that about 50 of this year's 435 House races could be considered truly competitive. Democrats need several seats to regain control of the House. Particularly important fights take place in Arizona, California, Michigan, Iowa, Pennsylvania, New York, Texas, Virginia and Wisconsin, among others. Therefore, the political map of the United States can be changed by a relatively small number of districts.

If Republicans keep the entire Congress...

Then the scenario that gives the White House the greatest freedom will come true. Republican control of the House and Senate does not mean, of course, that Donald Trump can automatically get any bill through Congress, but control of both chambers would allow the administration to try to continue its agenda for the next two years without having to cede control of the legislative process to Democrats. This includes taxes, federal spending, immigration and border policy, energy, defense and many elements of economic policy.

The importance of this scenario is also visible in the president's latest proposal. During the Republican convention in Dallas, Trump announced a payment of $5,000 to adult Americans if the Republicans win. Reuters estimates that the program could cost about $1.2 trillion, not including debt service costs. The proposal was also met with skepticism by some Republicans fearing its impact on inflation and public finances.

It is also an example showing why control over Congress is so important. The president can make a political promise, but he needs Congress to implement an undertaking requiring such enormous resources.

If Democrats take the House...

This may be the most important and immediate change from the November election. Democrats wouldn't take over the White House. They couldn't simply undo Trump's policies, but by taking over the House of Representatives, they would have the ability to block much of the president's new legislation. Congress decides on federal spending, so with divided power, negotiations over state financing may become one of the most important areas of conflict between the White House and Capitol Hill. However, a change in the majority would mean something else. Democrats would take over leadership of the House committees. They could set their agenda, hold hearings and conduct more intense surveillance of the Trump administration. In practice, the political nature of Washington would change overnight.

Elections as a test of Trump's presidency

There is another dimension to the November vote. Formally, Trump is not on the ballot. Politically, however, his name is at the center of the campaign. The Republican convention in Dallas showed how strongly the party is still tied to the president. Trump himself presents the election as a vote to continue his agenda. This is a strategy that carries both opportunities to mobilize his supporters and political risks.

One of the most important problems for voters remains the cost of living. Reuters pointed out after the Dallas convention that Trump was trying to direct voters' attention to Democrats rather than high food prices and other economic problems. According to Reuters, the economic situation and dissatisfaction among some voters with the cost of living remain a serious problem for Republicans heading into November, so this year's midterm elections will also be the first nationwide test of voters' assessment of Trump's second presidency.

This wouldn't be unusual in American politics. Midterm elections very often become a vote for the president, even though his name is not on the ballot. History also shows that majority changes during the midterms are not uncommon.

Ukraine, NATO and foreign policy

The election result may also matter outside the United States. However, it is necessary to clearly separate the powers of the president from the powers of the Congress. It is the president who conducts American foreign policy and is the commander in chief of the armed forces. A change in the majority in the House or Senate does not mean an automatic change in US policy towards Ukraine, Russia, NATO, China or the Middle East.

However, Congress has one of the most important political weapons: control over money. This means that the composition of Congress may matter for future military aid packages, Pentagon spending, sanctions and other measures requiring legislation.

In the background, 2028 is already starting

There is one more consequence of these elections that is increasingly being talked about in Washington. November 3, 2026 will also be one of the first major political tests before the presidential elections in 2028.

Donald Trump, under the 22nd Amendment to the Constitution, cannot be elected president for a third time. The Republicans will therefore have to choose a new candidate. This rivalry is already starting to become visible.

One of the central figures in this debate is Vice President J.D. Vance, and among other important names mentioned is Secretary of State Marco Rubio. At the same time, there are differences within the GOP regarding, among other things, tariffs, foreign policy and the scope of the populist economic program. Therefore, the midterms result will also be analyzed for 2028.

On November 3, Americans will choose more than Congress

This year's elections can therefore be considered on several levels at the same time. At the most basic level, they will decide who will control the House of Representatives and the Senate. In the second, they will decide on the political conditions under which Donald Trump will rule for the last two years of his presidency. The third will be the first major nationwide test of public sentiment since Trump's return to the White House. On the fourth stage, they will begin the next stage of the fight for the political future of both parties before the presidential elections in 2028.