The scenarios are listed as follows: "Yemen government forces force the Houthis to withdraw from some regions with a counter-attack, the conflicts in Babulmandeb lead to regional and international intervention, or the Houthis consolidate their gains on the west coast without directly targeting international shipping."
While the balances on the field have been changing rapidly on the west coast of Yemen in recent days, the Houthis' advance around the strategic Babulmandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, has brought the future of the struggle in the region to the agenda again.
Since the beginning of September 2026, the Houthis have intensified ground attacks as well as missile and UAV attacks in Taiz and Hodeida provinces, especially in the Hays, Huha, Waziye and Kedha axes. According to military sources, these attacks led to the withdrawal or redeployment of government forces from some areas.
The Houthis completed their control of Babulmandeb on September 11, after nearly a week of clashes. The group carried out one of the most comprehensive military escalations in recent years, capturing some areas on the west coast, including the city and port of Muha, as well as strategic islands.
Yemeni government forces announced that they targeted positions, assembly points and vehicles in the regions captured by the Houthis with air strikes and inflicted losses on the Houthis. It was stated that civilians were displaced in some areas on the west coast due to the clashes.
Government forces are reorganizing their troops while continuing air strikes in an attempt to take back lost areas and regain control over Babulmandeb.
Houthis may withdraw from some regions
According to the first scenario, increasing attacks by Yemeni government forces may force the Houthis to withdraw and redeploy from some of the regions they have recently captured.
Sana Strategic Research Center researcher Dr. In his statement to AA correspondent, Adil Dusheyla stated that the Houthis may have difficulty maintaining the gains they have achieved for a long time in the face of ongoing government pressure on multiple fronts.
Dusheyla stated that the opening of new fronts in regions such as Marib, Al-Jevf, Beyda and Taiz could slow down the Houthis' advance or cause them to redeploy some of their troops.
Yemeni military and strategic expert Brigadier General Muhammad al-Qumeym also stated that he expects government forces to launch counter-attacks to take back the lost areas.
Kumeym stated that the escalation continues, counter-attacks by government forces will continue, and a decisive conflict may occur in the coming days to retake Muha and the regions beyond.
Warning that the delay could lead to more severe consequences, Kumeym referred to the Stockholm Agreement signed in 2018 and said, "The Stockholm Agreement made the world pay a heavy price. If no lessons are learned from this, a greater price will be paid." he said.
The Stockholm Agreement was signed between the Yemeni government and the Houthis in December 2018 in Sweden under the auspices of the United Nations.
The agreement envisaged a ceasefire in Hodeidah, the redeployment of government forces and Houthis in the city of Hodeidah and the ports of Hodeidah, Salif and Ras Isa, facilitating humanitarian access to Taiz, and the mutual release of captives and detainees.
However, the implementation of the agreement was disrupted due to the mutual accusations of the parties, especially in the areas of redeployment in Hudaydah and opening of the roads in Taiz.
Babulmandeb war may turn into a regional conflict
According to the second scenario, the struggle in Babulmandeb could go beyond Yemen's borders and turn into a regional and international conflict.
Advisor to the Yemeni Ministry of Defense, Brigadier General Kumeym, stated that the struggle for Babulmandeb is no longer limited to Yemen and that control of the Bosphorus is a strategic goal for Iran.
Stating that the Houthis used almost all of the weapons and means they had in the attack against Muha, Kumeym stated that the Houthis reaching Babulmandeb created a new situation in terms of regional and global maritime security.
Kumeym noted that the international community will not allow the Houthis to maintain control over strategic islands and influential positions for a long time, especially Meyyun and Hanish islands, which are important in terms of maritime transportation.
It is considered that the conflict may turn into a broader military and political intervention if the Houthis continue to threaten regions connected to maritime transportation or target countries in the region.
Houthis may consolidate coastal gains
According to the third scenario, the Houthis may try to make permanent the gains they have made on Yemen's west coast without completely closing Babulmandeb or directly targeting international ships.
According to Dushaila, a researcher at the Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies, the Houthis' aim may be to put pressure on Saudi Arabia while preserving their gains on the west coast, but to avoid becoming embroiled in a large-scale international conflict by closing Babulmandeb and directly targeting international shipping.
In this scenario, the Houthis could face Saudi Arabia's air strikes and support for Yemeni government forces while maintaining their influence on the coast.
Dusheyla stated that it may not be possible to remove the Houthis from the region with a rapid military intervention or to eliminate their current gains in a short time, and that the group has made gains on the field despite the increasing military and air pressure.
It is stated that if the conflicts escalate further, regional agreements may come into play depending on the decisions of Saudi Arabia.
New alliance for maritime security
Saudi Arabia announced on July 30, 2026 that 14 countries, including Egypt, Turkey, Pakistan and the Gulf countries, have approved the establishment of a multinational defensive maritime alliance to protect the security of maritime transportation and global energy supply chains.
According to the joint statement, the alliance's area of activity includes the Red Sea, Babulmandeb and Gulf of Aden. Within the scope of the alliance, it is planned to carry out coordinated patrols and intelligence sharing under joint military command against missile and UAV threats and piracy.
Brigadier General Turki al-Maliki, Spokesperson of the Arab Coalition led by Saudi Arabia, reported that 73 people were injured in the attack by the Iran-backed Houthis on civilian and commercial facilities in the Saudi Arabian cities of Ebha, Khamis Mushait, Jazan and Najran on September 8.
The Houthis have been in control of some parts of Yemen, especially the capital Sanaa, since September 2014. The Arab Coalition led by Saudi Arabia has been supporting the Yemeni government since March 2015.
