Polls show that the difference in support between Shen Boyang and Jiang Wanan is only 1.2%. The Blue Camp questions the credibility of the data.

Shen Boyang went to Nanfu Palace to take part in incense. (Photo by reporter Gan Menglin)

The Trustees Association released a poll for the Taipei mayoral election on the 22nd. The difference in support between DPP Taipei mayoral candidate Shen Boyang and Taipei Mayor Chiang Wanan was only 1.2%. According to the analysis of the Facebook fan page "Politics by Voice Volume", on the eve of the release of the latest Taipei mayor poll by the Trustees Association, Taipei City Councilor Yang Zhidou of the Kuomintang opened fire in advance, linking the polling unit and UMC founder Cao Xingcheng with Shen Boyang, questioning the credibility of the data. The blue camp rushed to take precautions before the data was released, reflecting the internal anxiety that had already gripped them. They tried to lead the trend by preemptively labeling the election to prevent voters from seeing the election situation as a real change, showing that the election atmosphere in Taipei City has completely changed.

The fan blog "Voice Aware of Politics" issued an article today and pointed out that after the poll was released, Jiang Wanan's question "Are you talking about the Cao Xingcheng who was ousted?" when he was interviewed was asking A and B again. He did not directly answer why Shen Boyang caught up with him by only 1.2 percentage points. He just added the words "big recall" in front of Cao Xingcheng.

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"Voice Depends on Politics" mentioned that Cao Xingcheng is a person, but the recall is a complete political memory. For some supporters of the blue camp, it can quickly bring back the political confrontation of 2025 and what they believe will be a comprehensive victory. The new trend signal that originally belonged to the 2026 Taipei mayoral election was stuffed back into the political framework that was maliciously misunderstood last year.

"Volume Depends on Politics" believes that they are trying to prevent pan-blue supporters from thinking about "How did Shen Boyang catch up to 40.5%?". As long as they think of the label "It's a big recall of those people again", it will be effective. There is no need to overturn the polls or persuade, it is enough to get supporters back to their original familiar political mood.

"Politics depends on the volume of voice" bluntly said, "This battle is actually about who is qualified to explain ocean currents." Kuomintang lawmaker Liu Caiwei also publicly questioned the sample structure of 37.5% green and 28.4% blue. Party identity structures, sampling and weighting methods can all be discussed. But when the Kuomintang further condensed the issue into Cao Xingcheng and the general recall, the matter went beyond the polling method itself. What the blue camp is really fighting for is: Is what everyone is seeing now an approaching election, or is it a political bubble recreated by a group of recall supporters?

"Voice Depends on Politics" further analyzes in depth that the key to an election often lies in whether society begins to believe that the challenger "has a chance to win." In the past, the person who had to prove himself was Shen Boyang. He had to prove that the ocean current was not the stratosphere, that he could step out, and that Taipei citizens were willing to get to know him again. Now, on the other hand, the Kuomintang must prove that crowds are meaningless, that volume of voice cannot represent votes, and that even close polls are not worthy of belief.

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Taipei Mayor Chiang Wanan. (File photo)