[1 year of Tohe district expansion] Gangnam is captured, but ‘decoupling’ is increasing in other regions

It is becoming clear that the 'decoupling' phenomenon, in which prices in lower-middle-class areas such as the outskirts continue to rise despite the decline in housing prices in Gangnam, Seoul, is expanding to areas outside of Seoul.

Not only in Seoul but also in southern Gyeonggi Province, as house prices in preferred areas around the 'semiconductor belt' have risen sharply and jeonse and monthly rent properties have become scarce, an unusual atmosphere has recently been felt even in areas that previously received less attention.

According to the Korea Real Estate Agency on the 18th, the rate of increase in apartment prices in Gunpo-si, Gyeonggi-do, a non-regulated area, was 0.72% in the second week of October, an increase of 0.45 percentage points compared to the previous week. The region rose 9.26% cumulatively this year, but fell 0.30% in the same period last year.

Byeongjeom-gu, Hwaseong-si, which is also an unregulated area, recorded a cumulative increase of 7.72% so far this year, and in the second week of October, the increase increased by 0.23 percentage points compared to the previous week, increasing by 0.56%.

A similar trend is felt in Bucheon, which is considered an unpopular area in Gyeonggi-do.

Wonmi-gu, Bucheon City, has continued to see a weekly increase in the 0.30% range since last month, and recorded a high increase of 0.52% in the second week of October. Wonmi-gu's cumulative growth rate this year is 6.78%, which is about 34 times higher than the same period last year (0.20%).

Even in regulated areas but relatively unpopular areas, there is a noticeable upward trend.

Maegyo Station Prugio SK View, Maegyo-dong, Paldal-gu, Suwon-si, sold an exclusive 84㎡ 10th floor unit for 1.19 billion won on the 8th of this month. Compared to the majority of transactions in the 900 million won range until the beginning of this year, it has risen by more than 200 million won.

The asking price for an exclusive 84㎡ unit in this newly built complex, completed in 2023, recently jumped to 1.3 billion won.

Uiwang City also had a cumulative growth rate of only 0.89% as of the second week of October last year, but this year, the growth rate was on the verge of entering double digits with 9.62% during the same period. Weekly selling prices in this area rose 0.60% in the second week of October.

Gangnam-gu, Seoul, which used to be a leading area in housing prices, has a weak cumulative change rate of -0.95% this year, and Seocho-gu is also flat at 0.81%, showing progress in the mid- to lower-tier areas beyond Seoul and beyond to the Gyeonggi area.

Within Seoul, while the Gangnam area was showing weakness, 14 autonomous districts, mainly in the mid-range and below, including representative low-priced suburban areas such as Jungnang-gu (10.77%) and Gangbuk-gu (10.81%), recorded cumulative double-digit growth rates this year.

In addition, the Gyeonggi region has also shown clear strength, focusing on areas influenced by factors such as accessibility to Seoul, proximity to direct ownership of semiconductor plants in southern Gyeonggi Province, recent Samsung Electronics in-house housing loans, and a decrease in monthly rent listings.

According to the Real Estate Agency, Gyeonggi-do occupied 8 of the top 10 regions in cumulative increase in apartment sales prices this year as of the second week of October. This is the exact opposite compared to last year when only two Gyeonggi-do provinces were in the top 10 in annual growth rate.

Dongtan-gu, Hwaseong-si, Gyeonggi-do (20.14%) ranked first in growth rate this year, as well as Gwangmyeong-si (16.70%), Yeongtong-gu, Suwon-si (16.19%), Bundang-gu, Seongnam-si (16.01%), Dongan-gu, Anyang-si (15.81%), Suji-gu, Yongin-si (15.56%), Giheung-gu, Yongin-si (13.95%), and Seongnam-si. Eight places in the Gyeonggi region, including Jungwon-gu (13.88%), ranked at the top.

There are two Seoul regions included in the top 10: Seongbuk-gu (15.68%) and Seodaemun-gu (13.26%).

In addition to Gwacheon-si (20.04%) and Bundang-gu, Seongnam-si (19.12%), all eight of the top 10 last year were Seoul.

The recent movement in the Gyeonggi area, including non-regulated areas, is interpreted to reflect the influence of the trend of tenants in popular regulated areas moving to non-preferred areas and converting to purchases, where sales and jeonse prices have soared and jeonse and monthly rent listings have decreased.

For example, in Yeongtong-gu, Suwon City, which ranks third in sales growth this year, jeonse also rose by 11.32%. Based on Asil (actual apartment transaction prices), a real estate big data company, the number of leased properties increased to 403 on January 9 of this year, but decreased by 27.8% to 291 on the 17th of this month.

Nam Hyeok-woo, a real estate researcher at Woori Bank, said, "The price strength in southern Gyeonggi Province is spreading due to the inflow of liquidity such as Samsung Electronics' in-house loan, while in a situation where there is a shortage of jeonse and monthly rent properties, prices in those areas are also rising as tenants in areas where prices have risen significantly, such as Suwon, move to the region and buy down."