
Iran intensified its pressure on the coordinating framework and the Shiite leader Muqtada al-Zaidi to avoid a clash between the Iraqi government and the armed factions that refuse to hand over weapons, by sending a representative of Khamenei to encourage dialogue and delay the implementation of the arms control deadline, while Nouri al-Maliki warned of attempts to ignite strife and stressed the coordination framework’s support for the government in order to preserve stability, at a time when Humam Hamoudi announced the formation of a Shiite leadership council to avoid a Shiite-Shiite war.
AI-generated summary
This development comes in light of the Iraqi government's efforts to impose a restriction of weapons in the hands of the state by a specific deadline, which is rejected by some armed factions, while Iran seeks to avoid any collision that might weaken its influence or drag Iraq into an internal conflict or confrontation with the United States.
High in status
Iran, for its part, intensified its pressure on the “coordination framework,” and on Al-Zaidi together, especially after the “coordination framework” was rearranged by adding a new member to its leadership, Shibl Al-Zaidi, leader of the “Imam Ali” faction and head of the “Services” bloc in the Iraqi parliament, following the escape of Ahmed Al-Asadi, the former Minister of Labor and Social Affairs and a leader in the “framework,” after he was accused of corruption files, and the resignation of Abu Al-Wala’ Al-Wala’i, the Secretary-General. For the “Sayyid al-Shuhada Brigades.”
In this context, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei personally entered the line, when he sent his special representative, Mohsen Qomi, with the aim of containing the repercussions of restricting weapons to the state, which the Iraqi Prime Minister insists on. At the same time, Khamenei's envoy urged the "coordinating framework" forces to avoid any clash between the "coordinating framework" forces and the armed factions that refuse to hand over their weapons to the state by the end of the specified deadline.
Iran does not want pretexts for a collision
The goal that Iran aims to achieve by following this new policy is not to give the government any excuse to clash with the factions, by forming committees, starting discussions, and establishing mechanisms for the purpose of handing over weapons, and determining which weapon, and what is the return.
This means manipulating the deadline, but in a way that does not lead to angering the government that has an understanding with Washington, nor does it lead to provoking Washington, as no one knows the limits of its reaction if the Iraqi government does not meet the arms control deadline.
... Concerns regarding the “coordination framework”
In this context, Dr. Ghaleb Al-Daami, professor of media at Al-Mustansiriya University, told Asharq Al-Awsat, “(The coordination framework) feels the dangers resulting from the arms restriction, and also knows how serious Washington is in this file, which made it try as much as possible to search for an outlet or some way to refrain from implementing the arms restriction 100 percent, but at the same time achieve American satisfaction with Iraq.”
Al-Daami added, “The forces of the (coordination framework) also know very well that confining weapons to the state and combating corruption are ultimately in the interest of Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, while the (coordination framework) does not want any prime minister to achieve great success. Thus he is allowed to achieve limited success; So that they do not branch out...but rather remain under their control.”
Then he explained that “(the framework), in this case, as much as it wants to avoid inflaming the situation with America, at the same time it does not want the prime minister to appear as a popular hero in front of the people,” stressing that “this behavior pursued by the Shiite forces is not limited to the treatment of Al-Zaidi only, but rather it is a consistent policy that I followed with all previous prime ministers, although the opportunity now is different... as the balance is now tilted in favor of Al-Zaidi as he enjoys great popular support that is difficult to resist, and despite this, attempts are being made to circumvent it.”
No to overthrowing the government
For his part, Nouri al-Maliki, leader of the “State of Law” coalition, warned one day after the visit of the high-level Iranian envoy, of attempts to ignite “fires” in the political scene and confuse the Iraqi reality.
Al-Maliki affirmed, in press statements, his support for the “coordination framework” for the continuation of the government and his refusal to change or overthrow it. He said, according to a statement issued by his office last Wednesday, that Iraq “is going through a sensitive phase that requires a high degree of wisdom and responsibility,” noting that there are attempts to confuse the political scene, at a time when the “coordination framework” continues to support the government out of concern for the country’s stability and its highest interests.
Then the former Prime Minister stressed the need to address the issue of restricting weapons to the state, “away from escalation or confrontation,” warning that “this file will turn into a clash between the state and the factions that will be extremely dangerous, and may threaten the stability of Iraq and open the door to differing political positions.”
Al-Maliki stressed that any internal confrontation would be “a loss for all of Iraq,” and not for a specific party or component. Anyone who imagines that any potential conflict will be “Shiite-Shiite” is delusional. Because its repercussions will affect the state, society and all components.
He continued that the government and the “coordination framework” will not allow the country to slide into internal fighting, calling for “the crystallization of a clear national and regional vision that prevents Iraq from being exposed to risks, and prevents it from turning into an arena for settling conflicts or conflicting regional and international interests, in a way that preserves its security, sovereignty, and stability.”
A Shiite “leadership council.”
Meanwhile, in the context of the new arrangements “engineered” by Iran, Hammam Hamoudi, a prominent leader in the “Coordinating Framework” and the leader of the “Supreme Islamic Council” - whom Iran made the link between it and the rest of the leadership of the “Framework” - announced the formation of a Shiite “leadership council” to avoid the outbreak of a Shiite-Shiite war.
Hamoudi warned of what he called an effort to ignite a “Shiite-Shiite” war, saying that “its apparent goal is to protect public interests, while its hidden purpose - according to his description - lies in destabilizing Shiite political and social influence and removing influential forces from their positions.”
Hamoudi added, during his participation in a discussion session within the activities of the “Eighth Baghdad Dialogue” conference organized by the Iraqi Institute for Dialogue, that “the presence of the supreme authority, religious commitment, and the awareness of the Iraqi people of the reality of the malicious conspiracy (according to his description) - will prevent the success of any bet on a Shiite-Shiite war... and they will not succeed.”
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The dialogue will continue between Iran, the coordination framework, and the armed factions to avoid an immediate collision over the arms file
Likely · Within weeks
Al-Zaidi will face increasing pressure from the coordination framework to prevent him from achieving great success in the arms control file
Likely · Within months

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